De-carbonizing our power grid essential

VALLEY VOICES/Paul Morley

April 29, 2007

Coal has been in Alaska news a lot lately. No wonder. Alaska and our nation have lots of it.

We hear that increasing our use of coal for household and industrial power production would offer our nation greater energy independence and a long-term supply for the future. On the surface this is true. But not far below, the arguments favoring burning coal for electricity crumble.

Recently, we learned that Kodiak-based investor Afognak Native Corporation backed out of paying for exploration in Full Metal Mineral's development of a Chickaloon coal mine. This puts MEA's push to construct a coal-burning power plant there on hold.

But we all know this is not the end of the story. Residents of communities like Chickaloon will have to continue wrestling with the possibility of industrial-scale coal development in their back yards.

Yet in addition to the impacts these local residents would incur, we should also be considering broader impacts of adding coal power plants to our power grid. No matter how “cleanly” coal is burned, the fact remains that for every ton consumed to generate electricity, four tons of carbon dioxide float off into our atmosphere.

We've all heard skeptics brush aside scientific findings that humans are the primary cause of global warming occurring now. This kind of dismissal is eerily reminiscent of 30 years ago when scientists were observing strange readings of ozone over the Antarctic continent.

Measurements indicated that the proportion of this molecule in our upper atmosphere, critical to filtering out 95 percent of the devastating ultraviolet radiation from the sun, was plummeting. Researchers assumed at first that there must be instrument error. But by 1995, levels of ozone above the South Pole were confirmed to have dropped by more than 70

percent.

At the same time, incidence of skin cancer in southern Chile and Australia was soaring.

A body of evidence suggested the cause of the dramatic reduction of this protective atmospheric filter was emission of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used at that time in aerosol propellants, electric transformers and refrigeration. Dupont Corporation, a major producer of CFCs, launched a huge public relations blitz attempting to discredit the scientists' findings. Critics of the science claimed that conclusive proof was tenuous.

Sound familiar?

In the end, the world didn't buy Dupont's deception, and in 1985 the Montreal Protocol was formed calling for an international cessation of production of CFCs. American companies rallied to create alternative chemicals, and as CFC emissions declined worldwide, ozone levels began to stabilize. They are expected to return to normal levels by 2050.

So here we are again. Evidence mounts pointing to the human causes of global warming. Extensive research indicates that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are at their highest levels in more than half a million years and that the sharpest increase has occurred since the Industrial Revolution.

Yet the central role of humans in this change is still met with claims that the evidence is inconclusive. Blind rejection, denial and avoidance of our responsibility mirror the actions of tobacco and asbestos lobbies decades ago as they fought to cling to a few more years of profits.

Some claim that projections of what could happen if global temperatures continue to increase 2 or more degrees are pure speculation. But predictions based in solid science are far from speculation.

In scientific investigation we measure, analyze, make predictions and test hypotheses. Then we repeat the process to increase the reliability of our findings.

Science never absolutely proves anything. We can increase statistical confidence, but in the end, we end up with approximations of what is or may happen.

Even Newton's laws of motion have been found to have their limitations when you start to investigate the essence of matter and the universe. But they still stand as pretty darn good approximations.

We've just added some deeper levels of knowledge with quantum theory. Some day, these, too, will be found to be flawed. But this does not lessen their value and potential utility now - or in years to come.

It would be foolish for us to ignore evidence pointing to our part in climatic changes. Australian author Tim Flannery, who recently spoke at UAF, points out in his book, “The Weather Makers,” that current global warming is occurring at 30 times the rate as warming that occurred following the last Ice Age.

Oil company experts considered Hurricane Ivan, which roared into the Gulf of Mexico and tore out miles of underwater pipe in 2004, “a once-in-2,500-years event.” Then 2005 brought us Rita and Katrina. The hottest European summers on record occurred in 2002 and 2003, killing thousands.

A 20 percent reduction of sea ice in the arctic since 1950 is affecting the vitality of plankton, Perry caribou in Canada, and polar bears and Native people throughout the circumpolar north. Residents of Shishmaref are facing relocation as their town site erodes into the Chukchi Sea. Warming temperatures are melting permafrost, reducing the number of days sea ice protects the shore from wave action, and increasing the intensity of storms that are eating up the narrow barrier island.

We cannot afford to wait indefinitely for absolute proof. Doing so, we could act too late.

Scientists will continue to collect, evaluate and draw conclusions from global climate data. And healthy, rational debate will continue about findings and proposed actions - as it should.

Realistic options are available in Alaska to substantially reduce carbon dioxide emissions, including increased fuel efficiency for transportation, and supplementing our existing power grid with alternative energy sources such as wind, solar and geothermal.

Existing energy cooperatives could weave in home-based power production. Carbon offset programs already in practice in rural Alaska can be expanded.

National governments and corporations already exist that have reduced carbon emissions as much as 70 percent. It's time we apply our American ingenuity and demonstrate to the world what is possible.

Paul Morley lives in Palmer and teaches at Palmer High School. His Valley Voices guest opinion column appears here every four weeks.