HOUSTON — Norm Bouchard knows a little about the coin flip.

“So far I’m 3-for-3,” the Houston head coach joked on Thursday, noting his record when it comes to the prep football coin flip, the measure used to break ties in the standings and decide playoff seeding at the small-schools ranks in Alaska.

And this year, once again, Bouchard and his Houston Hawks will have their playoff destiny determined by the flip of a coin. With a win over Kodiak (4-2 overall, 3-1 in Northern Lights Conference play), Houston (4-3, 2-2) would force a three-way tie for second place in the NLC. That’s, of course, assuming that two-time defending state champion Soldotna does what’s expected and beats Kenai (5-2, 3-1).

A Houston win combined with a Kenai loss would give Houston, Kenai and Kodiak identical conference records of 3-2.

Since there’s also a three-way tie in terms of head-to-head play (Kenai beat Houston and Kodiak beat Kenai), a coin flip would be used to break the tie.

Each team would flip with the odd man in the fourth seed and seeds two and three would then be decided by head-to-head play.

The second seed is guaranteed a home game during the first week of the playoffs, while the second and third seeds are forced to hit the road.

If Kodiak beats Houston in the game that starts today at 4 p.m. at Kodiak High, Houston would be relegated to the fourth seed and will most likely open the playoffs against a team that won the top seed in the Greatland Conference with a coin flip.

Eielson, Barrow and Nikiski could realistically finish in a three-way tie for first place in the Greatland with 5-1 conference marks.

Eielson is 5-1 and done with conference play. Barrow and Nikiski are both 4-1, but those teams’ opponents, Delta and Seward are a combined 1-12 this season.

Delta’s win came against Seward.

If Nikiski does in fact beat Seward and Barrow does get by Delta, Greatland coaches have already figured out which teams would have the top three seeds.

A coin toss was staged last week and Barrow was the victor, and would be the No. 1 seed assuming the Whalers and Bulldogs both win.

That means if Kodiak beats Houston, the Hawks would be making the long flight to the North Slope.

But Bouchard knows anything could happen.

“We could host, we could be going to Barrow, we could be going to Eielson,” Bouchard said. “It just depends.”

Bouchard does know one thing.

“It makes for hectic travel plans at the last minute,” Bouchard said.

And the longtime coach also knows that coin flips will decide everything, and the Hawks will need solid play on both sides of the ball to beat a Kodiak team that has finished as the runner-up in each of the last two small-school state title games.

“They’re a good football team,” Bouchard said of the Bears. “We definitely have to stop their offense, and try to get something going for us on the offensive side.”

Kodiak is currently riding a nine-quarter scoreless streak. The Bears, winless in their last two, haven’t put points on the scoreboard since the third quarter of a 19-14 win over Kenai on Aug. 31.

But even though the Bears were blanked in losses to Palmer (14-0 on Sept. 13) and the two-time defending state champion Soldotna Stars (48-0 last week), Bouchard said the Hawks will need to put a significant number of points on the board to get the win.

“We’ll need to put 28 to 30 on them to have a shot,” Bouchard said.

Houston’s ability to score will rest on the right shoulder of senior quarterback Jordan Webb and the legs of senior running back Kyle Sumner.

Webb has completed 50-of-109 passes for 673 yards and eight touchdowns this year, while Sumner has scampered for 475 yards and six scores.

Senior Bryan Mason leads the Hawks with 19 catches for 303 yards and four touchdowns.

Playoff schedules are slated to be released by Alaska Schools Activities Association on Monday.

Contact Frontiersman  sports editor Jeremiah Bartz at sports@frontiersman.com.