Fallout unclear for Palin

ALASKA — Now that the long-anticipated Troopergate report has concluded Gov. Sarah Palin abused the governor’s office while trying to get her former brother-in-law fired from the Alaska State Troopers, the question is what the report will do to her politically.

Since the report was made public Friday, stories in major newspapers across the world detail a family feud that spilled into Alaska’s highest office.

The conclusion Palin, the Republican vice presidential candidate, used her position for personal purposes also comes at a time when Republican presidential candidate John McCain is falling even further behind Democrat Barack Obama in national polls.

A spokesman for the Obama campaign said officials there are letting voters decide if the Troopergate report will affect Palin’s vice presidential aspirations. Nathan Osburn, the Obama spokesman, said the abuse of power violation determined in the Troopergate report is reminiscent of the country’s current administration.

“We’ve seen repeated abuses of power from the Bush administration,” Osburn said. “And that’s one of the reasons Americans are cynical of politics.”

A call to the McCain-Palin campaign seeking comment was not returned by press time.

On Saturday, however, in a conference call with Alaska reporters, Palin said the report cleared her of any unethical activity.

According to a transcript of the call, Palin was reminded the No. 1 finding of the report states she abused her power and violated state law.

In response, Palin said she thinks “you’re always going to ruffle feathers as you do what you believe is in the best interest of the people whom you are serving.”

The original intent of the Troopergate investigation was to find out if Palin abused her power by trying to get her former brother-in-law fired.

The report that came out Friday did two things: it reaffirmed Palin’s right to fire former Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan and it said she did abuse her power.

Still, Nov. 4 is three weeks away, and anything can happen in that time. But just how much impact the Troopergate report will have on the McCain-Palin ticket depends on who you ask.

“I think given where the McCain-Palin ticket stands today, it’s a marginal factor,” said University of Alaska Fairbanks political science professor Gerald McBeath.

McBeath said voters tend to treat controversies like Troopergate differently because it involves a family dispute as opposed to rewarding cronyism.

Voters are more likely to dismiss something like Troopergate than a situation where a governor gives unethical rewards to a subordinate, McBeath said. That’s on the national scale; in Alaska, it could be a different story. Since Palin joined the national ticket her approval rating in the state has steadily declined.

Pollster Ivan Moore said Monday the latest poll shows Palin with a 60 percent approval rating and 30 percent negative in Alaska.

Those numbers may please most governors of other states. But in Palin’s case, her 60 percent approval rating is down from a high of nearly 85 percent before she was tapped for the Republican ticket.

Factors often noted as contributing to Palin’s rating decline are her role as attacker for McCain and some claims and assertions the ticket has made on the campaign trail that were disproved soon after, Moore said.

Moore said he expects Palin’s approval ratings to drop even further in Alaska now that it’s been determined she abused her office.

“I suspect it’s going to hurt her,” Moore said, adding a new poll gauging Alaskans’ approval of Palin will come out next Monday.

Since Palin’s ascension to the national stage Aug. 29, the media has been fascinated with the little-known governor from an often misunderstood state. The fascination appears to have brought to the surface more negative press than Palin has ever received before during her political career in Alaska.

The Troopergate controversy, which began as an issue rarely talked about outside Alaska, became a story in the Lower 48 when McCain picked Palin.

Following Friday’s release of the report, Rep. Bill Stoltze, R-Chugiak, said the media will have a role in shaping voters’ perception of the Troopergate controversy depending on how they report it.

McBeath said if McCain doesn’t win the presidency it’s important to remember Palin will come back to Alaska as the governor.

What will happen then is unclear. McBeath said it’s safe to say Palin’s previously sterling relationship with many House and Senate Democrats is tarnished, and the full Legislature could vote to censure her.

There hasn’t been talk of that yet, but many progressive bloggers are starting concerted efforts to circulate recall petitions among Alaskans.

“The honeymoon is over,” McBeath said.

The state’s Personnel Board is also investigating the Troopergate scandal, and Palin has said the board is the correct body to run such an investigation.

The board has hired Anchorage trial attorney Timothy Petumenos, a Democrat who contributed to Palin’s opponent, Tony Knowles, during the 2006 gubernatorial election, to run the investigation.

It’s unclear when the Personnel Board’s report will be complete.

Contact Michael Rovito at michael.rovito@frontiersman.com or 352-2252.