Troopergate doesn't faze Palin approval rating

MAT-SU — New poll results show Gov. Sarah Palin’s popularity rating in Alaska slipping slightly, but not nearly as much as some predicted following the release of the Troopergate report.

Ivan Moore, owner of Ivan Moore Research, released new numbers Thursday showing Palin with a 64 percent positive rating and 33 percent negative rating in the state. The survey was conducted with 500 likely voters statewide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent. Moore said out of 500 surveys about 75 were conducted in the Mat-Su Valley.

Moore’s previous poll, taken before the Troopergate report was released, showed Palin’s rating at 64 percent positive and 30 percent negative.

“Given that the Branchflower report was made public on Oct. 10, followed by abuse of power headlines in newspapers on the 11th, it is perhaps surprising that Palin’s rating has remained quite as consistent as it has,” Moore said.

Still, yesterday’s rating is far lower than Palin’s January high of 82 percent favorable and 11 percent negative.

A spokeswoman with the McCain-Palin campaign said she had not seen the numbers yet and did not comment.

The Troopergate report found that while Palin had the right to fire former Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan, she abused her office by trying to get her former brother-in-law, Alaska State Trooper Michael Wooten, fired.

The state’s Legislative Council hired Stephen Branchflower as an independent investigator after a unanimous vote of eight Republicans and four Democrats to investigate Palin.

Shortly after Palin was picked as Republican presidential candidate John McCain’s running mate Aug. 29, the Troopergate probe became mired in controversy.

Palin, who initially agreed to cooperate before being named McCain’s VP pick, said the probe became too partisan and amounted to a smear campaign.

After the report went public Oct. 10, many political pundits predicted it would destroy Palin’s favorable ratings among Alaskans.

Judging by Moore’s report, those pundits were wrong.

“What this shows was that, largely, people had made up their minds” about Troopergate before the report came out, Moore said.

Moore’s report also asked three Troopergate-related questions. The answers to those questions create what appears to be a paradox.

While 53 percent of those surveyed thought pressure was placed on Monegan to fire Wooten and 48 percent said Monegan was likely fired because of Wooten, only 34 percent thought an abuse of power occurred.

The numbers show that although many Alaskans feel the Palins put pressure on the Public Safety Department to fire Wooten, most feel there was no abuse of power in the process.

“They didn’t buy the report,” Moore said of the majority of Alaskans.

That could be because of what Moore calls Palin’s dedicated base of supporters in Alaska “who support her through almost whatever happens.”

He added the so-called “Palin Truth Squad,” comprised of former Palin spokeswoman Meg Stapleton and Ed O’ Callaghan, a former U.S. prosecutor in charge of terrorism cases, could have swayed people’s thinking. The Truth Squad held almost daily press conferences to discredit the Troopergate investigation, but has since gone quiet.

To Moore, the Truth Squad wasn’t a good idea.

“They did damage control,” Moore said. “They really ticked people off.”

He added, judging by the small effect the report had on Palin’s rating, Palin likely should have cooperated because it wouldn’t have made a difference in people’s reaction to the report.

“The efforts to suppress and road-block the investigation only made them look as if they were worried as to what the findings would say,” Moore said.

The results of Moore’s survey came out less than two weeks before the presidential elections. No matter Palin’s popularity rating in the state, Alaska is expected to vote Republican Nov. 4, and the state only has three electoral votes that count toward electing a president.

Palin and her husband, Todd, are expected to give depositions in a separate Troopergate investigation run by the state’s Personnel Board Friday.

Palin filed an ethics complaint against herself with the board after she said the Legislature’s investigation had become too partisan. The Personnel Board is the proper venue to handle an investigation like Troopergate, she said.

The board hired Anchorage attorney Timothy Petumenos, a Democrat, as its independent investigator.

There has been no official word on when Petumenos will finish and release his report.

For now, at least, Palin’s popularity seems to be holding steady.

“It’s certainly good news for Sarah,” Moore said. “There had to be concern there.”

Contact Michael Rovito at michael.rovito@frontiersman.com or 352-2252.