Economist: Valley, state fare better than rest of nation

BY TODD L. DISHER
Frontiersman
Published on Saturday, February 6, 2010 8:16 PM AKST

MAT-SU — Despite the doom and gloom of the national headlines, the Valley economy saw real job growth in 2009, which meant more people came looking for work.

This was the report delivered Wednesday by Department of Labor economist Neil Fried to the Valley Board of Realtors.

“The (Mat-Su) Valley is one of the few places that has continued to grow, not just from a population standpoint, but from a jobs and opportunity standpoint as well,” Fried said.

ROBERT DeBERRY/Frontiersman file photo The Mat-Su Borough saw growth in retail, professional and business services, as well as leisure and hospitality jobs in 2009. The only sector that saw a decline was construction.

The number of jobs in the Mat-Su Borough increased by 3 percent over the first three quarters of 2009, Fried said. This means about 600 new jobs were added to the local economy from January to September.

Consistent with national trends, local job growth was positive in both government and health care sectors. But unlike the rest of the country, the borough also saw growth in retail, professional and business services as well as leisure and hospitality jobs. The only sector that saw a decline was construction, and transportation jobs remained neutral.

This 3 percent growth is in contrast to an estimated 1 percent decline in Anchorage’s jobs and a 0.7 percent decline statewide. Looking south, Oregon has lost 6.5 percent of its jobs since the recession began, and California now has 1 million fewer jobs as compared to the start of the recession.

“That is three times our entire labor force,” Fried said. “What if one tenth of 1 percent decided to come to Alaska?”

And according to population numbers, the borough continues to see an influx of migration.

The borough is now home to more than 84,000 men, women and children. This is up from 59,000 in 2000 and 39,000 in 1990. Growing faster than the rest of the state, the borough is now home to 12.2 percent of the Alaska’s population. This is up from 4.4 percent between 1970 to 1980, 7.2 percent between 1980 and 1990, and 9.5 percent between 1990 and 2000.

There are two mechanisms of population growth: natural increase and migration. Between 2000 and 2009, the 80 percent of the borough’s growth was due to migration. The net migration gain to the borough over this period was more than 18,000 people. Anchorage’s net gain during the same time was 1,203.

“These numbers really do matter,” Fried said, as they determine everything from seats in the state’s legislature to the amount of revenue sharing the borough gets.

But even outside of the state’s fastest growing area, Alaska as a whole is faring much better than the rest of the country. In 2008, the news was Alaska’s insulation from the recession, Fried said. It did hit in 2009, but not all the gains made earlier in the decade were lost, he said.

“We too have lost ground, but we are losing much less ground than the rest of the country,” he said.

Fried said Alaska’s relative success is because the economy is structured so differently than the U.S. economy as a whole. Manufacturing — a sector vulnerable to recession — is not nearly as important to Alaska. The Alaskan real estate market has not had the same disastrous effect here, he said. And then, of course, there is oil revenue and support from the federal government.

Fried said the numbers from 2009 have not been solidified yet, and predictions are always hit or miss. But, the Department of Labor is predicting a job loss of 0.4% for 2010 in the state.

Contact Todd L. Disher at todd.disher@frontiersman.com or 352-2252.

Comments

3 comment(s)

    akpr8 wrote on Feb 8, 2010 5:42 PM:

    " well that wasnt exactly my point, but oh well. I'll be looking forward to the 10 yr mark on all these new homes when they start showing their age. and besides theres still plenty of run down homes from the last economic boom that still need fixing. Too bad most service industry jobs dont pay well enough to save money aside for home maintenance. "

    Get over it wrote on Feb 7, 2010 10:59 PM:

    " You seem to think your job is better or more important than a service industry job? The construction industry killed itself with by building faster than it could sell. By developers buying and building then selling at inflated prices. Face it your job is done. "

    akpr8 wrote on Feb 7, 2010 9:02 PM:

    " As a construction worker I say awesome lets lose my highly skilled job as a carpenter for a service industry job that pays half my wage and still pat ourselves on the back for increased job growth as if we are really growing our economy dollar-wise. Lets fake it till we make it I say. "

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