Are there more bears this year? State officials say it's all about perception

As rescuers and search crews this week combed the more than 13-mile Pioneer Ridge trail region in search of missing hiker Fina Keifer, feared dead after reported bear encounters, many Alaskans turned to social media with a burning question: what’s up with the seeming recent increase in bear activity?

Bear problems this year hit the news well before winter ended. In mid-February a man was mauled near Haines after inadvertently skiing over a bear den. Just a few days later, also near Haines, a woman was injured when a bear attacked her from inside a pit toilet after she sat down.

In May, a man was mauled near Gulkana while conducting a land survey. Two campers were attacked by a bear as they slept in their tent June 13 in Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, despite having taken every advised safety precaution in their campsite, wildlife officials said. And the search for Keifer, who was miraculously found injured but alive on Knik River Road after missing for nearly two days, had started when she disappeared after reportedly telling her husband she had been charged by multiple aggressive bears, discharged her bear spray and urgently needed help.

While those encounters are undoubtedly startling, state wildlife officials said, they were not caused by recent verifiable new or increased bear activity in the state or evidence of an increase in the bear population. Both bear activity levels and population numbers are unchanged as compared to previous years, they said.

“I don’t think that there’s any more activity this year than any other year,” said Tim Peltier, a biologist with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game who is based in Palmer. “It’s just that when something happens, people are more attuned into what’s going on.”

Psychologists called that experience the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon, or frequency illusion. Simply put, the more aware you are of something, the more you notice it. And as you continue to notice it, you grow even more aware.

For Alaska outdoor users who are already hyper-aware of dangerous and dramatic wildlife encounters, Peltier said, that means they pay special attention to startling bear encounters — but have the opposite reaction to a lack of bear news.

“You get a couple of incidents in a year, and then it seems like oh, it’s happening everywhere,” he said. “Another ear, you have nothing going on — but you don’t seem to notice that. People are pretty sensitive to bear issues.”

Instead, Peltier said, the activity is in line with past years.

“We’ve had bears in Palmer before, we’ve had bears in Wasilla. In Anchorage they have bears in town all the time. Even in the least likely to run into places it’s a possibility,” he said.

While some Valley residents have reported seeing bear activity in neighborhoods where they say they haven’t seen it in the past, local officials haven’t noticed anything usual on area trails. Hugh Leslie, who leads the Borough’s parks and recreation department, said his trail crew hasn’t seen anything out of the ordinary this season. Jodie Anderson, who directs the Matanuska Experiment Farm and Extension Center for the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said her team placed a bear warning sign early this season at the nearby Kin-Win trailhead after someone thought they had seen a bear on the farm property. They haven’t seen any signs of bear since, she said.

Mike Taras, a fish and game wildlife education and outreach specialist based in Fairbanks, said the increase in encounters might not be a bear population change, but instead a human population change as more people spending time on the trails and in the backcountry.

“Are there more people outside right now?” he said. “I think there just might be a lot more people getting out of the house.”

Both Taras and Peltier agreed that the bear encounters should be a reminder to residents that it’s always a good idea to stay bear aware and be prepared with bear spray or a handgun, even when you think you’re in an area where bears aren’t a problem.

“You should always have some bear awareness, you don’t even have to be out in the woods,” Peltier said. “I would probably always have bear spray with me. They don’t weigh a lot and it’s a good thing to have with you.”

Using trails in a group is a good way to make sure you’re making enough noise to let wildlife know you’re coming, he said — and making noise really is the key. Without talking or making other noise as you travel, you’re far more likely to surprise a bear, which can lead to an attack.

Taras said outdoor users should also review the bear safety guidance on the fish and wildlife website and take the time to watch a 30-minute information video, “Staying Safe in Bear Country,” used to train state staff on what to do during a bear encounter.

“Whatever you decide to carry, don’t do it without practice,” he said. “Known how to take the safety cap off spray without looking at it and know how it works. Know how to spray it and have it immediately available.”