Article headline, superintendent's analysis of COVID-19 cases is misleading

I am grateful we still have local journalism, but I was shocked and alarmed at the headline, “School District Curtails COVID-19.” There is zero evidence that keeping schools open is reducing the number of people infected with COVID-19. While I appreciate Dr. Trani’s work to keep schools open to satisfy our potentially misguided local population and school board, his analysis of cases is misleading and holds no statistical validity. First, cases in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (MSBSD) are self-reported by staff and parents. There has been no study to find out if the number being self-reported reflect the reality of the number of cases. Second, Dr. Trani is making a false comparison between the numbers of infected in the community and within the school. Children are much less likely to become infected or exhibit symptoms. There may be students in the school district who are asymptomatic, thus creating a potential threat to vulnerable members of the school community and not being reported as a case. Because children are less likely to be infected, the number of cases in a population dominated by children will be lower than a mixed-age population as is found in the community (those over the age of 80 make up 65% of deaths in AK). If he were to compare the rate of infection among students to the same age population in the community, he would be comparing apples to apples.

His claim that keeping schools open is mitigating the spread of COVID-19 has no basis in fact. We know that when people gather indoors, the likelihood of spreading the virus increases. Masks are not being worn by children in third grade and under, and mask-wearing compliance among older students and adults is far from ideal.

How can 101 cases of COVID-19 in the last two weeks in the MSBSD be considered mitigation?

I wish your headline had read, “It Is Time to Close Schools to Protect Teachers and Staff.”

Sincerely,

Lorene Lynn