Governor has three options on PFD

So the June special session has come to an end with an operating budget, but what about the PFD? The answer to that question lies with the second special session that Gov. Dunleavy has called for beginning July 8 in Wasilla.

Now, first and foremost, the residents of Alaska are going to get a dividend this year. That dividend is not going to be the three thousand dollar amount that the governor is pushing. And the members of the legislature are also keenly aware that voters will not accept not paying out a dividend this year.

In terms of the strategy going on between the governor and the legislature, there are some real obstacles to the governor. First and foremost, he does not have the votes in either the Senate or the House to get the dividend amount he wants. The House Majority Coalition will vote as a bloc to prevent passage of any legislation with that amount in it. As for the Senate Majority caucus, we have enough members opposed to paying out that amount to kill any bill the governor would support.

The only caucus the governor has on his side are the House Republicans who are in the minority and cannot get a bill over the finish line. This means that the governor has only three options moving forward. The first is to compromise with the House and Senate leadership on a dividend amount that is sizeable but not the three thousand he is asking for. He is unlikely to do this, as he is playing the role of Donald Trump and has made it clear he will not back down on this campaign promise. The second option, if the legislature passes a bill with a lower amount, is to veto it, and if the clock has run out, then to call another special session.

This would be a bad move on the governor’s part as it would anger his opponents and harden their position for another special session. The last option would be to sign whatever bill the legislature sends him with the lower amount and use it as a wedge issue in the next campaign, to go after those who did not support him. This option could be successful with some of the Republicans in both the House and Senate who are opposite him on this issue.

But that would not work with either the House or Senate Democrats, as they are in blue districts where they will get reelected despite — and maybe with the help of — the governor’s opposition.

Of the options that have been presented, the governor is going to most likely go with the second option — vetoing it and pushing for another special session. He has made the three thousand dollar amount the hill he will die on. That is going to play well to his base but it will not get him the results he wants.

The real question which must ultimately be addressed is: what is the long term plan for the dividend? And that, my friends, I shall address in my next piece on how the governor and the legislature can solve this challenge.