Legislative primary results encouraged some Alaska House and Senate candidates to quit

Alaska’s new top-four primary election didn’t eliminate a single candidate for state House or Senate, but several candidates withdrew from November’s general election before a Monday deadline, citing their performance in the primary.

Most of the state’s House and Senate races now have fewer than three candidates, the minimum needed to trigger ranked-choice voting for those seats. The state’s new primary election system allows up to four candidates, regardless of party, to advance through the primary and to November.

Among 19 state Senate races, eight have at least three candidates. Of the 40 state House races, there are 14 with at least three options.

In other races, withdrawals have changed the blend of candidates, altering races that will determine partisan control of the state House and Senate.

That control will determine what legislation advances or fails over the next two years, but candidates say it’s too early to tell how the changes, coming amid a brand-new electoral system, will affect their races.

“We’re all guinea pigs,” said Ashley Carrick, a Democratic candidate for House District 35 in Fairbanks. “So we don’t really know yet what’s going to be a vote-splitting situation and what’s going to help candidates. I think all of the candidates in similar situations are asking themselves those questions.”

Among the races with notable withdrawals:

In Anchorage, Alaskan Independence Party candidate Tim Huit withdrew, leaving Republican Kathy Henslee and Democrat Andy Josephson to compete in House District 13, whose boundaries were significantly redrawn by the redistricting process. Henslee had a one-vote margin over Josephson in the primary.

Also in Anchorage, Democrat Jennie Armstrong and Republican former legislator Liz Vazquez will have a head-to-head race after Republican Joel McKinney and Constitution Party candidate Rick Beckes withdrew.

Two East Anchorage state House districts became head-to-head matchups between Democrats and Republicans because of withdrawals. Both races are expected to be close.

In Eagle River, four Republicans had been competing to replace Sen. Lora Reinbold, R-Eagle River. After the primary, two candidates withdrew, leaving incumbent Reps. Kelly Merrick and Ken McCarty to compete in November for a Senate seat.

Clayton Trotter, a University of Alaska Anchorage business professor, was one of the two candidates who withdrew. He finished the primary with 6.9% of the vote.

“If I had come out of the primary with 30% of the vote, I’d still be in. It’s that simple,” he said.

Because up to four candidates, regardless of party, may advance from the primary to the general election, Trotter could have stayed in the race and been on November’s ballot.

He said that made the primary “a well-defined poll” rather than something that winnowed the field of candidates.

But in his case, that poll helped him decide to drop out.

“It’s a strain on your family, it’s a strain on your budget, it’s a strain on your business relationships and just a strain to run for office,” Trotter said.

“If you have a reasonable probability of success, that’s one thing. But if it looks like you don’t have that reasonable probability of success, it just makes sense (to withdraw),” he said.

He said he will be supporting McCarty in the general election.

Joe Wright also withdrew from the Eagle River race. He received 11.3% of the vote and said redistricting played a role in his decision. Until late in the redistricting process, Eagle River could have been joined with another part of Anchorage, creating a better district for his politics. He’s decided to run for Anchorage Assembly instead.

Democrats and independents are watching the Eagle River race with interest. As a House lawmaker, Merrick was one of two Republicans who joined the House’s coalition majority.

She was twice censured by local Republicans for that decision but still received more than half the votes of local voters in the primary.

Democrats hope to create a coalition in the Senate next year, and they believe Merrick could increase their odds — though Merrick herself has been noncommittal and remained so when contacted for this article.

“I’m going to continue running a positive campaign focused on my record of delivering for Chugiak-Eagle River,” she said. “The primary results are encouraging that Alaskans want legislators that are willing to work together to get things done.”

In Fairbanks, five candidates registered for the primary election for House District 35, but nonpartisan candidate Tim Parker withdrew, saying that family issues prevented him from campaigning as much as needed.

That means Constitution Party candidate Kieran Brown will take his place. Brown had been slated to be the only legislative candidate eliminated by the top-four primary.

Two Republicans and Carrick, the Democrat, remain in the race.

Kevin McKinley, one of the Republicans, said that regardless of the number of the candidates in the race, “you’re still going to have a lot of the basics that are going to be pertinent: getting out there, meeting the people, campaigning. That part isn’t going to change.”

But when it comes to ranked-choice voting strategy, that’s something campaigns are still figuring out, he said.

“Honestly, we’re going into uncharted territory,” McKinley said. “It’s a learning experience for everybody right now.”