Shower driving Senate Republicans toward a minority caucus

The Bicameral Working Group for the Alaska Permanent Fund has been convening a series of meetings on the future of the permanent fund and in particular the dividend itself. So far, the meetings have centered around the history of the fund and the way that history affects current operations. Eventually, the working group is going to have to come up with a solution that will be presented to the finance committees of both bodies.

That solution is going to be to constitutionalize the percent of market value approach that the legislature has been using since 2016. It is the only path forward that provides a steady revenue source for state government and provides for a dividend into the future. It is also the only approach that can get any political support given that the governor has made clear that any changes to the permanent fund must be placed in the state constitution.

But there is a major problem if the working group comes back with such a plan. And that problem, interesting enough, lies in the Senate and not the House. In the Senate Majority there is a divide between the two factions. One lead by Natasha von Imhof wants to move the permanent fund in the direction of a percent of market value model that is already in place. The other faction is led by Mike Shower, who wants to keep the traditional formula in place, and do away with the percent of market value model. This faction is committed to the governor’s position and will not compromise. If the working group presents a solution that Mike Shower and his faction don’t like, then they will protest it and not allow it to pass the Senate. This will force Senate President Cathy Giessel to take a step in a direction that she might not have planned. And that is to reach out to Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich to form a bi-partisan coalition in the Senate around passage of an amendment to enshrine the percent of market value model into the Constitution. President Giessel could make a coalition come together, as the Senate Democrats are not receptive to paying out a $3,000, or in keeping the traditional formula in place. They want to see stable revenue for government and dividends paid out but not at the high rates wanted by the governor.

The other Republicans that could be pulled into such a coalition are those such as Gary Stevens and Click Bishop, who are moderates and want to see a plan moved forward that can break the impasse. As unlikely as this may sound, there is building frustration with the moderate faction of the Senate Majority with the arch conservative faction led by Mike Shower. He and his compatriots, by refusing to compromise on a path forward, are going to drive their colleagues in the direction of the Senate Democrats.

If that happens, Senator Shower and his allies will be in a minority caucus and will lose whatever influence they presently have in the chamber. If he and his colleagues were wise they would come to the table and negotiate for a deal soon, or they may find themselves outmaneuvered. Pay close attention to this upcoming special session as it will portend what the future makeup of the Senate will be.