A few surprises in Aug. 16 primary election, but in legislative races incumbents generally fared well

Election results from the Aug.16 primary held some surprises.

Among those was the surprising level of support for Mary Peltola, an Alaska Native and former legislator who is running for Congress to fill out former Cong. Don Young’s term. Young died last March.

She also hopes to fill the seat for a full two-year term.

Peltola bested former Gov. Sarah Palin and Nick Begich in first-choice voting Aug. 16 but the outcome of the race to fill out Young’s term was by ranked-choice voting.

As votes for all three in the race are relocated, Palin or Begich may yet win in the November general election. How second and third choices will be reallocated is unknown at this time.

Many believe Palin is the most likely receiver of second choices from Begich voters, but Begich may receive second choices from those who chose Palin first.

It’s complicated, and how this will turn out is unknown but for now Peltola has shown her strength.

U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski holds a thin lead over her challenger, Kelly Tshibaca. This was a first round vote, however. The Senate candidates meet again in November, when ranked-choice voting rules will apply.

Meanwhile, in the Matanuska-Susitna region incumbent legislators generally did well, easily beating opponents in first choice selections.

An exception appears to be Republican Sen. Mike Shower in Senate District O, who was trailing challenger Doug Massie in initial counting, 4,182 for Massie to 3,665 for Shower.

There are a large number of absentee ballots yet to be counted, so this result may change. Also, Massie and Shower square off again in the November general election.

One open seat where the outcome is still uncertain is House District 28, in Wasilla, where Steve Menard held a slight lead over Jesse Sumner, a borough assemblymen, in the early count. Again, absentee votes have to be counted and these candidates also face each other in November.

Otherwise, incumbents Sen. Shelley Hughes held a big lead over Jim Cooper in Senate District M; David Wilson held an apparent comfortable lead over two opponents in Senate District N. In November, under ranked choice voting, things may change in the second and third choice reallocations, but it seems unlikely.

In House races, Rep. George Rauscher held a strong lead over opponent Elijah Hasse in District 29, which includes Valdez as well as parts of Mat-Su; David Eastman was holding a firm lead over opponents Brendan Carpenter and Stu Graham in House District 27; Cathy Tilton had a strong edge over Daniel Stokes in results from the House District 26 vote (Wasilla/Goose Bay Road); DeLena Johnson had a similar strong lead over Lawrence Wood in House District 25 in Palmer and Lazy Mountain.

Similarly, incumbent Rep. Kevin McCabe had a strong lead over two opponents, L. Joy Mindiola and Doyle Holmes, in House District 30, the Big Lake and Houston area north of Wasilla.

Again, the absentee count yet to be done could affect all of these outcomes.

In the governor’s race, incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy made a strong showing with 63,178 votes received, with Les Gara, a Democrat, drawing 33,244 and former Gov. Bill Walker netting 33,063. Charlie Pierce, a conservative Republican from Kenai, drew 10,363 votes.

In the Senate race, as of early Wednesday Murkowski received 43.7 percent of votes cast to Tshibaka’s 40.3 percent. The senator’s reelection is still uncertain, however, because November will be a “ranked choice” election in which voters rank their favorites one through four, as compared with the primary, in which only the top choices were counted.

Murkowski’s vote total Wednesday morning was 66,288 votes, or 43.7 percent of votes cast, compared with 61,225 vote or 40.3 percent of votes cast for Tshibaka. Patricia Chesbro, a Democrat on the ballot, pulled 3,386 votes or 2.2 percent of those cast.

Buzz Kelley, a Republican also in the Senate race, received 2,600 votes or 2.28 percent, on Aug. 16 and, being fourth, will appear again against Murkowski, Tshibaka and Chesbro in November.

The Senate race numbers are first choices will change when absentee ballots are tallied. However, the primary lead by Murkowski is likely to grow as more rural precinct results are included, which are likely to favor Murkowski.

Tuesday’s result could also build momentum for Murkowski as the campaign heads toward November.