ADF&G commercial management threatens Mat-Su salmon escapements

On Saturday, July 20, attainment of 2024 Mat-Su salmon spawning escapement goals was put in jeopardy, and the likelihood of later season-disrupting harvest restrictions or salmon fishing closures for conservative in-river salmon user groups became much more likely with issuance of Alaska Department of Fish and Game Advisory Announcement #37. Announcement 37 “restricted” the entire Northern District commercial harvest opportunity on Monday July 22 to one of the most liberal levels ever allowed since 2011, during the July 20 - July 30 period. — Up to 3 set nets with up to 105 fathoms of aggregate gear length.

The 2024 Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) preseason outlook projected a Susitna River drainage sockeye salmon return of 303,400 fish -- 35% below the historical 2002 - 2023 average and 21 percent below the recent 10 -year (2014 - 2023) average run.

5 AAC 21. 358 Northern District Salmon Management Plan directs that ADF&G shall manage Northern District commercial fisheries based on the abundance of sockeye salmon counted through the weirs on Larson, Chelatna, and Judd Lakes, and based on the abundance of king and coho salmon counted through the Little Susitna River weir or other salmon abundance indices as the department deems appropriate. * bold language adopted at 2024 Upper Cook Inlet Board of Fisheries meeting.

Section C of the plan, addresses the salmon migration period between July 20 - August 6, and allows ADF&G to restrict the Northern District commercial fishery to (1) three set gill nets not more than 105 fathoms in aggregate length; (2) two set gill nets not more than 70 fathoms in aggregate length: or (3) one set gillnet not more than 35 fathoms in length, if ADF&G’s assessment of abundance indicates restrictions are necessary to achieve the escapement goal.

Over the past 5 years each time the Northern District (General Subdistrict/west side) commercial fishery has been allowed to fish more than one set gillnet at the start of the July 20 to Aug. 6 period, coho and/or sockeye salmon escapement shortage has resulted — causing emergency restriction(s) or harvest closure(s) later each season. In 2023 coho salmon escapement shortages were so severe to cause inseason closure of three of the most significant Mat-Su sport salmon fisheries: Deshka River and Little Susitna River closed to all sport coho salmon fishing, and closure of Jim Creek to all salmon fishing. In addition the entire Susitna River drainage was restricted to artificial lure fishing with a daily coho salmon limit reduced to one fish (0 at Deshka River). Furthermore, both the Central District drift gillnet fishery and Northern District set gillnet fishery were closed early, because of coho salmon escapement shortages exacerbated by earlier-season unsustainable commercial harvest opportunities, during a year of low coho salmon abundance.

Given ADF&G’s 2024 outlook for a less than average Susitna River drainage sockeye return, Northern District Salmon Management Plan direction to provide shared commercial and inriver sockeye , chum, and pink salmon harvests, along with no ADF&G collection of Judd and Chelatna Lake sockeye salmon abundance data last year and again in 2024, and the department’s history of inseason restrictions / closures disrupting reasonable salmon harvest opportunities during previous seasons, a rational person could likely conclude the best management scenario for achieving Northern Cook Inlet salmon spawning escapement goals and providing all Northern Cook Inlet user groups a reasonable salmon harvest opportunity throughout more of the season would be Option 3 — one set gillnet not more than 35 fathoms in length ( and specifically within the General Subdistrict).

A rational person might further conclude that a more liberal (General Subdistrict) Northern District commercial harvest opportunity may only be justified after adequate salmon escapement enumerations (or even adequate weir-based escapement projections) were obtained from at least two or more of the four specific salmon abundance indicators identified within the plan. Contrary to what you might think, the Department provided no indication of Northern Cook Inlet/Susitna River/Little Susitna River salmon abundance when issuing Announcement #37, and, furthermore, salmon weir counts posted on the ADF&G website, at that time, showed zero salmon through Larson Lake, no abundance estimates from Judd and Chelatna Lake, and 15 coho salmon through Little Susitna River.

Last winter a retired ADF&G fishery biologist commented to me that it appeared Northern Cook Inlet ADF&G commercial fisheries management was taking a “Parochial Position” — of providing harvest for the commercial user group, even if it was at the expense of ADF&G established salmon escapement goals and / or the reasonable harvest opportunities of inriver users. Such management diverges from purposes provided in the Northern District Salmon Management Plan, is irresponsible, unacceptable, and frankly, since it may be unsustainable — has the appearance of also being unconstitutional. It is long past time that Northern Cook Inlet commercial fisheries management be based on a solid biological information — and when or if critical information is lacking (or indicates an unsustainable trend)— ADF&G commercial management of Northern Cook Inlet salmon stocks must be conducted on a significantly more conservative basis.

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Tidbits

A short-lived opportunity to catch and or harvest better-quality pink salmon from the Susitna River tributary streams along the Parks Highway, north of Willow, may likely peak during the last week of July. Small spinners, spoons, or flies are sometimes effective in drawing strikes from newly arriving pink salmon.

I went on a personal use dip netting trip to the lower Susitna River with three other individuals on Saturday July 20, and we had relatively good success. I would hope other Alaska residents might enjoy reasonable success in the remaining one Saturday and one Wednesday open dates in July for 2024 — after this column is published.

A few additional open fishing days remain for the Fish Creek Personal Use Dip Net fishery compared to the Lower Susitna River Personal Use Fishery, however, the last day for both fisheries is July 31 — so if you want to participate in either, better not dally too long.

Two friends of mine fished the Deshka River / Susitna River confluence area on Tuesday July 23, and caught one coho salmon and one pink salmon, but did not observe any large abundance of salmon milling in that area, as can sometimes occur.

AD&G harvest data from the Northern District commercial period mentioned in the above column show 11 delivers from the Eastern Subdistrict harvested 1,176 sockeye, 65 coho, salmon, 169 pink, and 72 Chum salmon or ~1,500 total salmon — about 135 salmon per delivery, while 24 deliveries from the General Subdistrict harvested 1,449 sockeye, 468 coho, 44 pink, and 514 chum salmon or ~2,525 total salmon — about 105 salmon per delivery. These are subpar daily harvest totals for this time of the season — but only one data point. However, like Northern Cook Inlet weir counts, they in No Way indicate any large surplus of harvestable salmon available in the Northern District of Upper Cook Inlet, at this time.

Good Luck and Fish On!