ADF&G prepares for 2026 Upper Cook Inlet salmon season

A few weeks ago I mentioned that the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG) 2026 sockeye and king salmon projections would be coming out for UCI. Four king salmon forecasts were announced on February 9, 2026 with Deshka River, Kenai River early run, Kenai River late-run, and Anchor River king salmon all forecasted with returns at each location below ADF&G spawning escapement goals (even without any fishing). Also on February 9, 2026 emergency closures were issued for nearly all wild king salmon sport fishing opportunities throughout UCI starting on May 1. An exception was catch and release king salmon fishing allowed in the 2-day youth king salmon fishery for wild fish in Campbell Creek in Anchorage. In freshwater fisheries where hatchery king salmon are expected to return during the 2026 season some king salmon sport fishing remains open — although wild fish are generally required to be released at locations where hatchery kings are fin clipped. At the Eklutna Tailrace / Knik River king salmon fishery, the hatchery king salmon smolts were not fin clipped before being released, and during 2026 anglers fishing in the smallish area open to king salmon at this location will be allowed to keep any king salmon they catch —following standard king salmon regulations — the same applies to the Ship Creek king salmon fishery in Anchorage. At Ninilchik River and Kasilof River on the Kenai Peninsula only fin clipped hatchery king salmon may be harvested, and additional fishery restrictions were added for 2026. There is not enough space in this column to cover all of the king salmon closures and sport fishery restrictions listed in 17 emergency announcements for Southcentral Alaska on ADF&G’s website. Those sport fishery emergency king salmon closures and restrictions can be read and considered on the following ADF&G webpage: https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/sf/EONR/index.cfm?ADFG=Region.R2&Year=2026

UCI Sockeye Salmon Forecast — “In 2026, a run of approximately 7.60 million sockeye salmon is forecast to return to UCI with an estimate of 5.60 million sockeye salmon available for harvest (Table 1).” https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/applications/dcfnewsrelease/1755437970.pdf

The ADF&G opening statement from their 2026 Upper Cook Inlet Sockeye Salmon Forecast above, presents an extremely unlikely harvest of 5.6 million sockeye salmon — even if all UCI sockeye returns were to come back exactly as ADF&G forecasted for 2026. The reason for “extremely unlikely” — the Upper Cook Inlet commercial salmon fishery is a mixed stock fishery, to varying degrees, at likely every location open to commercial fishing. ADF&G has been managing the commercial fishery to achieve sockeye salmon spawning escapement goals at Kasilof, Kenai, and Susitna River locations, but also has a sockeye salmon spawning escapement goal for Fish Creek (Big Lake drainage) and further mentions in their 2026 UCI Sockeye Salmon Forecast that 17% of the 2026 sockeye salmon return is expected to go to unmonitored systems throughout UCI. Therefore, only considering sockeye salmon harvested in UCI’s mixed stock commercial fishery(s) it is an impossible task to harvest all sockeye salmon surplus to each minimum escapement goal threshold without failing to attain some of those same sockeye salmon spawning escapement goal thresholds. For example of the 7.6 million sockeye ADF&G forecasts will return to UCI this year, the department is estimating that 4.45 million (well over half) of those sockeye will be returning to the Kenai River alone. The Kenai River has been so productive for sockeye salmon that if those Kenai River sockeye are harvested throughout UCI at anywhere close to the maximum sustained yield level for that single stock, there would likely be substantial over harvest of many of the less productive UCI sockeye salmon stocks occurring at the same time.

The problem comes from over harvesting those other sockeye salmon stocks, since the Alaska Constitution states in Article 8 Section 4:

“Fish, forests, wildlife, grasslands, and all other replenishable resources belonging to the State shall be utilized, developed, and maintained on the sustained yield principle, subject to beneficial uses.”

In addition to sockeye salmon, however, there are also four other salmon species (again divided into multiple spawning stocks) all returning to UCI, and many in the same July early August timeframe as those abundant Kenai River sockeye salmon. When the same salmon stocks are over harvested year after year, their populations can be driven down to the point that there may not be any harvestable surpluses of particular species or stocks -- if the stocks are to be maintained at a consistent spawning abundance level. Without maintenance at some level of consistent abundance “Sustained Yield,” becomes “Ever Declining Yield” or at times, and for an increasing number of fisheries “No Yield.”

How will ADF&G manage the abundance of sockeye salmon (and particularly Kenai sockeye) in relation to meeting Sustainable Escapement Goals (SEGs) for other sockeye stocks and other UCI salmon species during 2026?

Andy Couch is a member of the Matanuska - Susitna Borough Fish and Wildlife Commission and the Matanuska Valley Fish and Game Advisory Committee the thoughts and opinions expressed in this column are his own - unless noted otherwise.