Alaska’s employment down

WASILLA — Compared to last June, Alaska’s employment rate is down 0.5 percent with a 7.1 percent unemployment rate (statewide seasonally adjusted rates) totaling to a loss of about 1,700 jobs, according to preliminary estimates in a recent press release from the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

The largest job losses were in retail ( minus 1,000) and state government ( minus 600). Oil, gas and professional and business services were both down 400 jobs, according to the press release.

DOLWD economist, Karinne Wiebold explained the factors that drove the numbers revealed in the press release and related data she was able to pull up. She said that the retail losses were related to the overall recession. Less people spending money and large store closures drove down the number of retail jobs. Toys R Us shutting down in Alaska last year appears to be a recent and poignant example of this.

As for the oil, gas and professional job losses, Wiebold said they were all related to varying degrees. Whenever the oil and gas prices drop, so often do the numbers of employees, she said. When the amount of oils and gas projects lower, so do the numbers of hired professionals required for the projects. An

“An oilfield may need geo/physical expertise. If there’s less activity in the oilfield, then there’s less of a need for their expertise,” Wiebold said.

“Recent projects, particularly in the Interior Region, have boosted construction employment after nearly four years of losses,” DOLWD Communications Director Heather Beaty stated in the press release.

According to Wiebold, economics aren’t always as simple they seem. A variety of factors drive their estimates. She said that it’s easy to assume that unemployment rates and job loss are interchangeable, if one goes down, so does the other; but that isn’t the case. She explained that they are both parts of the big picture but not the same thing and will often vary from each other. There’s a lot of variables to consider when it comes time to crunch the numbers.

“Jobs and unemployment rates should fit really cleanly together but they don’t really,” Wiebold said.

Alaska’s entire economy varies significantly based on seasons, hence the seasonally adjusted rates in the numbers.

“Not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates fell over the month in many parts of the state, following the expected seasonal pattern as summer employment ramped up. Rates were under 4 percent in boroughs and census areas that are especially dependent on fishing or tourism, including Bristol Bay, Aleutians West and East, Skagway, and Denali,” Beaty stated in the press release.

According to the press release, the highest unemployment rates were in rural areas, Kusilvak Census Area was the highest at 22.7 percent; and Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area, Nome Census Area, Northwest Arctic Borough, and Bethel Census Area’s rates were all in the teen numbers.

Wiebold explained. She said that unemployment rates are usually lower thanks to factors like tourism, construction and commercial fishing; everything slows down in the winter and unemployment rates are usually higher.

“That’s definitely how Alaska operates,” Wiebold said.

People who are actively seeking employment are technically a part of the workforce, according to Wiebold.

“The labor force is not just made up of people who work but people working for work,” Wiebold said.

Population is another determining factor when looking at the economy. Wiebold said that the current population survey was one of the biggest components that contribute to the final data. That includes something called “net migration.” From 2016 to 2017, there was a population change, a net migration of -9,000 people (meaning that more people left the state than the year before).

“It’s different than we normally think,” Wiebold said.

According to Wiebold, from 2016 to 2017 Alaska lost 2,800 jobs compared to 2017 to 2018 with 1,700 jobs.

The unemployment rate in the Mat-Su Valley was 6.7 percent as of June 18, 2018. Wiebold said that overall, the state’s recent recession has for the most part, missed the Mat-Su Valley.

“The state overall started losing jobs in late 2015, but Mat-Su grew 2.5 percent from 2014 to 2015. Mat-Su grew 1.9 percent from 2015 to 2016, and then lost 0.3 percent from 2016 to 2017. Another way to look at that is between 2015 and 2017 (last full year of data available) Mat-Su employment increased 1.6 percent, while the state decreased by 3.1 percent,” Wiebold said.

If it seems confusing, don’t worry. Although Wiebold gets a special kind of kick from the challenge of making sense of these factors, to the laymen, these economic pushes and pulls probably seem “clear as mud.”

Contact Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman reporter Jacob Mann at jacob.mann@frontiersman.com