An earthquake early warning system for Alaska could save lives and reduce property damage

Earlier this month, 31,288,516 people across the world dropped, covered and held on as they participated in the Great ShakeOut, the world’s largest earthquake drill. Alaska contributed 106,933, including participation from the University of Alaska Anchorage, Alaska Pacific University and schools throughout the Anchorage School District. In comparison, California had 7,682,086 registrants and Japan 2,793,707.

As important as earthquake drills are, earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are instrumental in saving lives and reducing property loss. On May 4, Washington Emergency Management Division activated their earthquake early warning system. Any earthquake measuring a magnitude of 4.5 or higher will trigger an automated push notification through the ShakeAlert system. Oregon went online on March 4th of this year, coinciding with the 10th anniversary of the 9.1 magnitude that hit Japan in 2011. California activated their early warning system on October 17, 2019.

But, where is Alaska?

Operated by the United States Geological Survey, ShakeAlert is an earthquake early warning system (EEW) that detects the start of substantial earthquakes and then relays information to the public, via television, radio and communication partners such as mobile phone networks, before shaking begins where they live. EEW systems are active around the world including in Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Romania, China, Italy, and Taiwan.

EEW systems rely on seismic sensors and monitoring stations to effectively detect and communicate. According to the Earthquake Early Warning System for Alaska Fact Sheet, Alaska has roughly 250 sensors, one for every 2,200 square miles; although, many of these monitoring stations were temporary and subsequently deactivated last year. These provisional stations, which numbered 280, were installed starting in 2014 with most coming online between 2016 to 2018. So, rather than being more prepared, Alaska is less so now. For comparison purposes, California has 1,100 monitoring stations, one for every 140 square miles. Japan has nearly 4,400 or 1 for every 34 square miles.

During the COVID-19 lockdown, Vivien He, A high school student in California created an early warning earthquake sensor prototype for less than $100. This DIY EEW device successfully measured a 4.6 magnitude quake that triggered an alarm and sent a text message to subscribers. Could a citizen scientist grassroots effort help here in Alaska?

In a 2016, the Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission released The Benefits of Enhanced Earthquake Monitoring and Potential Earthquake Warning in Alaska report. In this report, the commission identified four major benefits of an EEW system. Specifically, an EEW network could provide adequate warning: (1) for our citizens to take protective actions; (2) to stop delicate mechanical and medical procedures; (3) to open fire & emergency services and prepare personnel; (4) for power and steam generation plants to reduce operating pressure; and pipeline shut off. EEW systems have the potential to save lives and reduce property damage.

Japan had already incorporated an EEW system when the March 11, 2011, 9.0 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Miyagi prefecture. Thirty-one seconds later, individuals received an EEW system message, via television, radio and cell phone, notifying them of the impending tremor coming that way. This gave residents between 10 and 30 seconds to prepare before the tremor hit their location. The EEW system transmitted triggers to automatically stop elevators at the nearest floor, stop production machinery and turn off computer networks. Time was afforded to turn off the gas in apartments and an opportunity to drop, cover and hold-on.

Cost estimates for an Alaska EEW system run in the tens of millions of dollars. Michael West, State Seismologist at the Alaska Earthquake Center and Research Professor at the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska Fairbanks put this in perspective.

Significant research will be needed to address questions about how many stations and what upgrades will be needed to make EEW possible in Alaska. There are also significant cost-benefit exercises that we, as a state, will want to consider. What level of performance do we want? What types of earthquakes do we want warning from? What areas of the state should be included? Is it worth it?

Is it worth it? is a question we all should ask. For example, can we afford to wait any longer for an EEW systems for Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau? Anchorage alone has nearly 300,000 residents, including approximately 43,500 students. Recall the 7.1 earthquake in late November 2018 that resulted in $75 million in damage. An EEW system would pay for itself, and, more importantly, it would save lives.

USGS estimates that 20 percent of the world’s seismic energy is released in Alaska. According to the Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission, Alaska has eleven percent of recorded earthquakes in the world. Since 1900, Alaska has had one magnitude 8-plus quake every 13 years, one 7-to-8-magnitude annually, six magnitude 6-to-7 each year, 45 5-to-6 magnitude tremors each year, and nearly 325 between 4 and 5 each year. With these facts, shouldn’t an early earthquake warning system be more of a priority?

Post-earthquake aftershocks, tsunamis and landslides often impact lives and property more than the actual earthquake. To illustrate, the November 30, 2018 7.1 magnitude earthquake, in Anchorage, caused $76 million in damage. There were nearly 3,000 aftershocks recorded over the first week of December and a total of 6,000 aftershocks through the end of the year. How much of that damage could have been prevented with an EEW system in place in Anchorage?

With seismic activity this high and a likelihood that Alaska will experience more than 50 5-plus magnitude earthquakes annually, both state and local officials need to prioritize an investment in an earthquake early warning system. Such an investment can save lives and reduce property damage as the next big quake to hit Anchorage is not a matter of if, it is simply a matter of when. The recent 8.1 magnitude quake off the coast, in late July, triggered a tsunami warning. Just weeks ago, there was a 6.9 in the same area which was identified as an aftershock of the July earthquake.