Back in Black

MAT-SU — Black Friday is more than an often-frustrating exercise in working off those extra Thanksgiving calories. For shoppers, it’s the official start to their holiday shopping season, and for bargain-hunters a way to get those Black-Friday-only deals.

For retailers, it’s the beginning of a year-ending selling blitz that can make or break their budgets. Coming off a 2009 shopping season that was less than stellar, many Valley retailers are eager for a rebound.

Many will know by the end of the day Friday, said Nick Kenshalo, sales manager at Image Audio in Wasilla. His store, which has been locally owned for 19 years, plans to open at 8 a.m. and close at 7 p.m., “or until people stop coming in,” he said.

With the store’s new 18,000-square-foot building on Seward Meridian Parkway and showing marked improvement in sales since Permanent Fund Dividends came out, Kenshalo believes 2010 will be much better for Valley retailers.

“So far, we’ve improved through dividend season,” he said. “Our best year was 2007 for the holidays and 2008 was great all the way around. But 2009 was bad for us. So far, 2010 has seen about a 15 percent increase, and we’re expecting to see that translate. Consumers are going to spend more on electronics this season. We’re going to see a big improvement, I guarantee it.”

While he won’t go as far as Kenshalo with a guarantee, an Alaska state economist agrees that 2010 appears to be going better for retailers so far. Any other predictions would be asking him to become a soothsayer.

“That’s exactly what it is, a total crystal ball that’s foggy as can be,” said Neal Fried, an economist with the state Department of Labor and Workfoce Development. “I think to some extent we’re infected by the national consumer confidence.”

That national confidence is up, which should translate here, he said.

“I would think that this last year was probably the worst for Alaska,” Fried said. “I would think that this year would be better, but is it going to be a lot better? I really don’t know that. Retails’ an incredibly competitive business.”

What the Valley has going for it is strong growth in its retail sector, Fried said. Because there are more stores and options here, local residents are more likely to keep their shopping dollars closer to home rather than drive to Anchorage.

“What’s interesting is that in Anchorage, retail employment hasn’t changed for years, but in the Valley, retail employment has grown by thousands,” he said. “Is the consumer confidence different in the Valley? I doubt that. Because retail is growing so fast in the Valley, you’re capturing more of those dollars that might be spent on the Internet or in Anchorage.”

While Image Audio may be girding for an upswing over a poor 2009 shopping season, at least one Valley store seems immune to the trends.

At Just Imagine Toys in the Wasilla Carrs shopping center, owner Mary Scheie has enjoyed strong sales coming off what she said was a strong holiday season last year.

“We had a great year last year, so we’re hoping to continue the trend,” she said. “Right now, we’re just getting in as much freight as we can to stock the shelves.”

As a locally owned toy store, Scheie says she tries to carry toys and brands that aren’t usually found in some of the box chain outlets.

“We try to have original and creative toys and give good service,” she said. “We have a few things the big box stores do — we have Legos and stuff — but we do carry different toys.”

The final month of the calendar year is extremely important for her store, Scheie said.

“Thank goodness there are birthdays all year-round,” she said.

At Matanuska Music, Henry J. Hartman said the holidays are about as important as any other time of the year.

“Honestly, I don’t expect a lot of heavy traffic at our store,” he said. “We don’t carry a lot of the items a lot of the bigger retailers are pushing at 4 a.m.”

He said there’s one edge smaller, local outlets have over the national chains, but all have another competitor that becomes larger every year in the Internet.

“I encourage shoppers to buy Alaska, but it also should be a message to local businesses to offer customer service, competitive prices, anything to stay competitive in an economy that relies so much on e-commerce,” he said. “It’s really going to be tough to compete in two or three years.”

Regardless of consumer confidence or crystal-ball predictions, Kenshalo will be busy on Friday, but he admits to being confused at the lure of Black Friday.

“I have no idea what that is,” he said. “I don’t shop on Black Friday. I’d rather pay 15 percent more than shop on Black Friday.”

Where will Fried be on the day after Thanksgiving? Not shopping, he said.

“I’d rather spend time in the dentist chair.”

Contact Greg Johnson at greg.johnson@frontiersman.com or 352-2269.