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Tiny little beetles are ruining Alaska's wilderness at an alarming rate, and if Glacier View School students are on track, the outcome isn't that encouraging.
The high school students in teacher Garth Morgan's ecology class have been doing research on the trees around the school, measuring the size of the trees and also the kill rate, thanks to spruce beetles.
During the more than two-month project, students have gone through every stage of the research process, and are now in the process of finalizing their results.
"It doesn't look too good," said 11th-grader Farrin Reid. "Some of the trees under five centimeters in diameter are safe right now, but that's about it."
While each student's results are a bit different, the general consensus is that a majority of the trees surrounding the school -- which are similar to trees everywhere in Alaska -- will be dead within a few years. Small, young trees have been immune to the beetle kill, but as soon as those trees reach maturity, they probably will be killed off as well.
"In 10 years, there will be about 18 or 19 percent of the trees there were in 1993," said Cori Mailaender, a foreign exchange student from Germany. Her teacher noted that is roughly the same amount of trees that will still be immature at the time, meaning most of the large spruce trees will be dead.
There are a number of reasons the beetle kill rate is so high. Warm summers speed up the reproduction process of the beetles, and warmer winters allow them to survive easier.
And while the students were studying just the trees, they are well aware of the long-term ramifications to their community.
"In 10 years when all these trees are dead, tourists won't want to stop here. They'll say 'This doesn't look like all those magazine articles,'" Reid said. "They'll come for the glacier [Matanuska Glacier], but it won't be as beautiful around here. The trees have an aesthetic value. It affects the whole ecosystem."
The results kind of surprised the students -- as well as their teacher.
"When you look at the trees, you can tell some are dying, but I really didn't expect to find so many dead trees," Mary Luna said. Her classmate agreed.
"I didn't realize the scale of the problem," said Melissa Beachy.
The study is unique because the ecology class is taught once every four years at Glacier View. The entire high school population -- Luna, Reid, Mailaender, Melissa Beachy, Sarah Boyer, Joe Weese, Devin Allen, Preston Rhea and Daniel Oliva -- participated, because the students share every class at the school.
"I first noticed the problem nine years ago when I first started, and then again four years ago when we taught the ecology class," Morgan said. "We really got into it with this group, and they are laying the foundation for the next group of students who can pick it up in four years and use their data."
The students studied two stands, with a combined total of just more than 300 trees.
They measured the diameter of the trees, and using trigonometry, they figured out the height. Then they counted the trees already dead and roughly dated them based on a number of signs.
With that data, they went into the computer lab and started mapping and graphing their results to come up with a long-term outlook. The final part of the project involves writing a research paper based on the results.
While the beetle kill problem is definite, dealing with it has no clear answers.
You can spray insecticides, but "that affects other animals that use the forest for food, and it gets in the water runoff," said student Joe Weese.
You can also cut down the old dead trees, but the students also found that less dense areas of the forest are more susceptible to beetle kill.
One major problem, as the Kenai Peninsula found out last summer, is that a lot of old, dead trees pose immense fire danger. The forest floor will soon be filled with the beetle-killed trees, and removing them will be important.
The tree study unit has given the close-knit community a real insight into the beetle kill problem, and it has given students a look at the scientific process.
"It gives me an idea of what I'd be doing if I went into a science field," Boyer said.
For Luna, sorting through all the data and formulating results helped make up her mind as to her future.
"I think it diminished my hopes of having a career in science," she said with a chuckle.