Broker: Valley housing market strong, but changes possible

WASILLA — Home sales and new home construction remain solid in the Mat-Su Valley, but the ongoing state fiscal climate does present some unknowns, a longtime area real estate broker told the Greater Wasilla Chamber of Commerce Tuesday.

Kibe Lucas, an independent agent who is part of the Keller Williams Alaska Group, presented national as well as Valley housing numbers to the weekly meeting of the Wasilla chamber, held at the Grand View Inn and Suites.

With a population that topped 100,000 in 2015, the Mat-Su Borough continues to show growth in several sectors, and housing continues to be at the top of the list in many measurements.

Lucas said in 2015, 1,948 single-family homes were sold in the Valley with a median sales price of $237,000. The national average last year was $222,400.

He said on average, homes lasted 31 days on the market.

“That measurement is from the time the home goes on the market until it goes under contract,” he said. “Then, you can add 60 days for lending, home inspections and other factors and it becomes a 90-day process normally to get a home sold.”

He said in an interview after the presentation that the $225,000 to $250,000 price range is productive, adding that much of the new home construction continues in the commuter areas of Palmer and Wasilla.

“It is a range many can afford,” Lucas said. “There is currently only 2.7 months of inventory, although some price points have more. This indicates we are still in a seller’s market.”

Lucas said Anchorage saw 1,000 more homes sold in 2015 but the median sales price was starkly different.

“It’s a big number — $100,000 more than the Valley at $335,000,” Lucas told the group, adding that Anchorage homes sold more quickly at just 20 days on the market.

While new construction sales are down 30 percent nationally, those numbers are up 20 percent locally from 2014-15, Lucas said.

“The median sales price has gone up too, from $279,000 to $283,000,” he said.

In Anchorage, the median sales price of new construction is $500,000, Lucas said.

“And the reason for that is because their land is so expensive in Anchorage — they just don’t have it to build on.”

That’s not a problem in the Valley, he said.

“We have a lot of land that’s affordable and we are very fortunate,” he said.

Nationally, Lucas said there were some trends that were showing a slowdown.

“For first-time homebuyers, nationally realtors typically like to see 40 percent of the market,” Lucas said. “In 2010 some 50 percent of the market were first-time homebuyers. Now all those student loans are coming home to roost, and the rate is down to 32 percent, so that could cause a problem nationally.”

Real estate is cyclical, Lucas said, and there is going to be shift in the market, probably sooner than later.

“Whatever happens, I would say that folks should be prepared,” he said.

Still, Lucas said home ownership was a good thing.

“People will tell you that homes are not a good investment — but there’s more to that story,” he said. “Homes are essentially a forced savings account that when bought right, maintained and in a good location will become a great asset for you in the long haul. Plus, it’s a wonderful place to raise a family.”

Contact reporter Steven Merritt at 352-2269 or steven.merritt@frontiersman.com