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to Murkowski victory
By SCOTT CHRISTIANSEN-Frontiersman reporter
Mat-Su -- On election night 2002, just 90 minutes after the polls closed, Alaskan voters could watch Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer tell a TV reporter that her opponent had apparently won the race.
"It looks like Frank Murkowski is going to be the next governor of Alaska, and I wish him well," Ulmer said.
That Ulmer could see the writing on the wall so early is due more to technology than anything else. The real surprise at evening's end was Murkowski's 15 percentage point lead -- the race had been called close by both sides just days before -- U.S. Senator Murkowski had 111,311 votes to Ulmer's 81,434. Democrats, Republicans and pundits alike were surprised.
"I was surprised [by Murkowski's lead]," former Wasilla mayor Sarah Palin said Wednesday. "But I was believing what I was reading in some respects. A lot of the media said it was going to be closer, they were reporting based on polls of course … it just makes you wonder about polls," Palin said.
Asked what went right for Murkowski's campaign, Palin said the message was "one of optimism" that resonated with Alaskans. It proved to be an effective counter-point to Fran Ulmer's message that the state needed to get its fiscal house in order.
"The message was that we weren't going to just sit back and manage the decline of Alaska, and that was Fran's message," Palin said.
Palin was one of Murkowski's most visible campaigners. Many observers noted that she was more visible than Murkowski's running-mate Loren Leman, who defeated Palin and two other candidates in the Republican primary race for lieutenant governor.
On the Ulmer side of the race, campaign workers were equally surprised by the Murkowski finish.
Public Employees Local 71, an AFL-CIO affiliated union that endorsed Ulmer, ran a phone and mailing campaign that reached out to its members and other voters. Local 71 also endorsed other candidates, including Willow Republican, Rep. Beverly Masek.
Local 71 business manager Don Valesko said he thought Ulmer's message may not have reached voters because it lacked the simplicity of Murkowski's message.
"It's not too deep for people, but it takes too long to explain," Valesko said. "Murkowski's mantra was that we're going to develop our way out of this mess -- any economic development with the exception of fishing and oil causes a drain on the state."
As an example, Valesko said that if the population doubled due to a mining boom, two of the results would be a dividend program and school system that serve twice the people with no real gain in revenue.
"We have 92 to 94 percent employment in his state. Any new development brings more people," Valesko said.
The ads Palin lent her image to were critical of the Knowles-Ulmer administration and of Ulmer's budget balancing plans. Palin said Wednesday she didn't think they could be described as negative ads.
"That's not negative, that's factual. A candidate's record needs to be revealed. Had she had her way 14 years ago, then we would be paying this income tax today. So in no way shape or form do I think that's negative."
Murkowski's promise of churning the economy while keeping taxes low and investing in infrastructure will be tested over the next few years. Palin said she thinks it's the right formula for Alaska.
"I know in my heart-of-hearts that the Republican message is the right message," Palin said.
Valesko said the Republican's pro-development message was simple -- perhaps that's why it got through to 56 percent of the voters.
"[Voters] think it means jobs. And jobs are good. And that's as deeply as they think," Valesko said.