Copper River king salmon dilemma

Alaska’s Copper River and Copper River District may be unique in 2025, as a location where Alaskan residents of four user groups (subsistence, personal use, sport, and guided sport) may have an opportunity to harvest wild Alaska spawned king (Chinook) salmon inriver, while a fifth user group ( commercial ) enjoys the opportunity to target and harvest king salmon in the district where the river meets saltwater. Faced with dramatic king salmon population declines, many of Alaska’s most famous king salmon producing drainages have been closed to traditional king salmon harvests for one or more user groups in efforts to maintain sustainable populations of Alaska’s state fish. Copper River king salmon fisheries may be staring down the same fate — consider last year’s fisheries.

2024 Preseason Forecast

In 2024 with an Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) forecasted commercial harvest of 1.3 million Copper River sockeye salmon, but a department forecasted total return of 47,000 Copper River king salmon all five user groups experienced some type of harvest restriction for king salmon conservation, and the four inriver user groups experienced inseason king salmon harvest closures for the remainder of the season. ADF&G’s forecasted Copper River sockeye harvest was exceeded with a 2024 commercial harvest of 1.37 million fish, however impacts on Copper River salmon stocks returning during the month of May and impacts on the four other user groups who share harvest opportunity on those early returning salmon stocks were significant.

Copper River Run Timings

The Copper River District is famous for having the earliest arriving spawning migrations of king and sockeye salmon in the State of Alaska. The district consequently also has the earliest opening commercial salmon net fishery in the state, resulting in some of the highest ex-vessel prices paid for net-caught sockeye and king salmon, and especially during the first few fishing periods. All these factors focus heavier commercial effort into the Copper River District, and especially during May and the first week or two of June. Early arriving salmon in the district, however, often appear to stage in saltwater for an extended period of time before migrating upstream out of the saltwater delta area. King salmon, in particular, are vulnerable to over harvest during the first few weeks of the season. For example, of the reported commercial harvest of 9,200 Copper River king salmon during the 2024 season, 6,053 kings (66% of total) were harvested during the 48 hours the commercial fishery was open in May. In comparison, of the reported 2024 commercial harvest of 1.37 million Copper River sockeye salmon, 253,183 (less than 19% of total) were taken at the same time.

Lack of May 2024 Escapements

ADF&G runs the Miles Lake sonar project to measure the number of salmon migrating up the Copper River. The department has also developed Daily and Cumulative Objectives for sonar counts on the Copper River starting about mid-May, however, in both 2023 and 2024 not a single Daily or Cumulative objective was met at the Miles Lake Sonar during the entire month of May. During May 2024 More than 7 times as many salmon (264,914) were harvested in the Copper River District Commercial Fishery than were counted passing the Miles Lake Sonar (34,587). The cumulative unmet sonar objective for the entire month of May 2024 was 148,339 salmon.

Consequences For Unmet Daily and Cumulative Sonar Objectives

ADF&G often says the department is neutral on allocation amongst user groups, however, failing to meet daily and cumulative Copper River sonar objects before allowing additional commercial harvests in the Copper River District is extremely allocative to the benefit of commercial users, and at the expense of all upriver user groups and potential expense of failing to achieve the king salmon spawning escapement goal. While the commercial fishery opened on the earliest possible date in 2024, and had two commercial openers before any salmon had been counted past the sonar, consider: The opening of the upriver personal use fishery was delayed 6 days by emergency order —specifically because of low salmon counts past the same sonar.

*June 24 the personal use king salmon harvest opportunity of 1 king salmon per household permit was closed for the remainder of the season.

*June 24 Harvest of king salmon closed in the Upper Copper River sport fishery for the remainder of the season, and bait use prohibited in all Upper Copper River Basin flowing waters.

*June 29 All king salmon sport fishing (including catch & release) closed in the Upper Copper River drainage.

*June 29 — July 31 Subsistence king salmon harvest closed in the Upper Copper River.

Board of Fisheries Regulation Changes for 2025

*The Copper River District commercial fishery was delayed one week until May 22.

*Potential start of the Chitina personal use (PU) fishery was delayed at least until June 10, with king salmon harvest in the PU fishery delayed until July 1.

2025 Copper River Preseason Forecast

A 1,920,000 commercial sockeye salmon harvest, 36,000 Chinook total run (25% less than 10-year average). This presents ADF&G with the management dilemma of how to commercially harvest that many sockeye, without potentially failing to achieve the 21,000 - 31,000 Copper River king salmon spawning escapement goal two years in a row, without failing to provide amount necessary for subsistence (ANS) salmon numbers for the 3 state-managed subsistence areas of the Upper Copper River, and while still providing reasonable king salmon harvest opportunity for Upper Copper River personal use, sport, and guided sport users throughout the season. That is a big request — one that may be unachievable.

If escapement goal management is truly the bedrock of successful State of Alaska salmon fisheries management, then a truly conservative, precautionary approach aimed at adequately protecting king salmon during the first three weeks of the 2025 commercial season appears to me the only adequate option. Without attainment of any Miles Lake sonar daily or cumulative objects through Monday May 19, 2025, the first Copper River District commercial opener has been scheduled for Thursday May 22. I have no doubt that one of the highest harvest ratios of king (Chinook) to sockeye salmon of the entire 2025 season will occur on Thursday.

After May 22, any subsequent commercial openers without first achieving at least one daily or (even better) cumulative sonar sonar objective pose a significant possibility of being too liberal / risking failure of attainment of the Copper River Chinook Salmon Spawning Escapement Goal and further risks over allocating the early season Upper Copper River salmon stocks to the detriment of priority subsistence and all other user groups of the Upper Copper River. Consider that for all user groups to have a reasonable king salmon harvest opportunity during the 2025 season, king salmon must be managed conservatively enough to allow at least some harvest in the Chitina personal use fishery — which does not open until July 1.

In light of several uncertainties including:

A forecasted 25% lower Chinook salmon return than the previous 10-year average, extremely slow evaluation times for the Village of Eyak king salmon mark / recapture project used to evaluate inseason abundances ( final, but inconclusive, assessment of 2024 king salmon abundance not until December), and an ADF&G king salmon sonar project that identifies a significantly lower number of king salmon than the Eyak mark / recapture estimates, Copper River fisheries should truly be managed on a conservative basis — and not by the unsustainable “More Liberal than Conservative” approach of 2024 and earlier, proven to: jeopardize king salmon spawning escapements, upriver subsistence needs, and allocating reasonable salmon harvest opportunities away from upriver users - clearly documented by ADF&G’s history of unmet early season Daily and Cumulative sonar objectives.

Precautionary / conservative management of Copper River king salmon and early returning sockeye stocks may, undoubtedly, require foregoing some level of sockeye harvest, however, what better opportunity to manage for the midpoint of the king salmon spawning escapement objective than 2025, a year when ADF&G’s preseason sockeye forecast indicates that precautionary/ conservative management should still provide ample Copper River sockeye salmon harvest opportunities (for all user groups) with fishing seasons extending into September.

Mat-Su Valley Tidbits

Lots of boaters are now launching from Deshka Landing on a daily basis, with good hooligan harvest opportunities reported, and low water conditions that allow the fish to move up the drainage quickly. This weekend may be the peak or even a bit past peak for Susitna / Yentna River hooligan.

Parks Highway Susitna River tributary streams are producing rainbow trout, grayling, and Dolly Varden — water levels are low and boat launches at Susitna Landing and Talkeetna have presented issues recently.

The first Ship Creek king salmon was reported caught on Monday May 19, so a few king salmon may be available at the Knik River side-channel / Eklutna Tailrace fishery over Memorial Weekend — On and off ramp access to the Knik River Public Access parking lot and boat launch appears to be challenging from the Glenn Highway. Mat-Su Valley lakes continue to be stocked by ADF&G in preparation for the coming Memorial Day Weekend — a popular camping / fishing opportunity. Drive Safely.

Good luck, and Fish On!

Andy Couch is a member of the Matanuska - Susitna Borough Fish and Wildlife Commission and the Matanuska Valley Fish and Game Advisory Committee,, however. statements / opinions expressed in this column are his own, unless noted otherwise.