Copper River salmon — alarming questions???

Copper River king (Chinook) salmon return abundances and sizes of the returning fish have been declining. These same king salmon trends have occurred throughout the entire State of Alaska since 2007, however, during the 2024 / 2025 Board of Fisheries cycle, the board shortened commercial and personal use seasons in an attempt to better conserve the Copper River king salmon resource (new language bold and underlined):

For the commercial fishery: Under 5AAC 24.310 (a) The Copper River may only open after May 21 by emergency order.For the Chitina District personal use dip net fishery: Under 5AAC 21.310 (d)(1) . . . , king salmon may not be taken until after June 30.

3. For the Chitina District personal use dip net fishery: Under 5AAC 77.591(b) Salmon may be taken from June 10 through September 30. The commissioner shall establish a preseason schedule, including fishing times, for the period June 10 through August 31 based on daily projected sonar counts at the sonar counter located near Miles Lake.

Freshwater Where Alaskans May Harvest Wild King Salmon

At this time the Copper River drainage is the only freshwater location on the Southcentral Alaska road system where subsistence, personal use, and sport fishers may (theoretically) target and harvest wild king salmon during the 2026 fishing season. I include the “theoretical” distinction because personal use king salmon harvest will likely be closed before any harvest is allowed, once again, during 2026 — unless the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) starts managing the commercial fishery to meet or exceed as many of the department’s May and June daily and cumulative sonar salmon passage objectives for Copper River salmon as possible.

“Weak” 2026 King Forecast

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) has classified the 2026 Copper River Chinook salmon return as “Weak,” with a total forecasted return of 33,000 kings. Note: The 2026 Prince William Sound and Copper River Salmon Forecast mentions that a return of 33,000 Copper River king salmon would be 27% less than the average return of 45,000 kings over the past decade (2016 - 2025), and states, “As the sustainable escapement goal (SEG) for Copper River Chinook salmon is 21,000 to 31,000 fish, this forecast supports conservative management for the 2026 season.”

The Legacy of King Salmon Harvest Restrictions / Closures

Even with significantly larger Copper River king salmon returns than the 33,000 fish forecasted for 2026, there have been several inseason restrictions and king salmon harvest closures for subsistence, personal use, sport, and commercial user groups during that past decade. Just last year (2025) inseason restrictions occurred on commercial (Copper River District), saltwater subsistence, and inriver sport fisheries, followed by a season-ending king salmon harvest closure for the inriver sport fishery. Even more severely impacted by lost king salmon harvest opportunity was the inriver personal use dip net fishery. For many years Copper River (Chitina) personal use permit holders have had the most conservative king salmon harvest limit - set at one king salmon — per household — per year. In 2025, however, because of projected Copper River king salmon escapement shortages, an inseason Emergency Order prohibited king salmon harvest in the personal use fishery, before any legal harvest opportunity had occurred.

Commercial Fishery Implications

The Copper River focussed commercial drift gillnet fishery is the earliest opening significant sockeye salmon fishery in the State of Alaska. As such, any Prince William Sound Area commercial drift gillnet permit holder may only harvest salmon in the Copper River / Bering River Districts before June 1. In addition, as the first-available, well-marketed abundance of net-caught Alaska salmon each year, Copper River harvests during May receive the best sockeye salmon prices paid in Alaska. The price paid for first-of-the-season Copper River king salmon? It absolutely dwarfs the high price paid for early Copper River sockeye. Combining these factors results in the largest number of commercial permit holders per opener fishing the Copper River / Bering River Districts during May and early June each year. That translates to substantial commercial harvest power at the start of the Copper River salmon return — when very few of the staging salmon have migrated upstream from saltwater.

Copper River Ice / May Salmon Counts

Ice flows and cold water temperatures appear to retard salmon migration past ADF&G’s Copper River sonar site located near Miles Lake. Every spring salmon abundances accumulate in saltwater near the river terminus — resulting in large commercial harvests of sockeye and king salmon, before any corresponding abundance of salmon has been counted past the sonar. Cooler temperatures and a general later spring break up (like 2026) appear to compound this imbalance of early-season commercial salmon harvests compared to upriver salmon escapements. Some believe (author included) that start-of-the-season high harvests compared to low May sonar counts likely indicate a long-term pattern of early season overharvests. Consider the start of the 2026 season as an example, icy upriver conditions delayed full 24-hour deployment of the Miles Lake sonar until after May 21 (these type conditions also delay upriver salmon migration from saltwater!).

May Commercial Harvests Prioritized Above Sonar Objectives?

ADF&G’s partial cumulative Miles Lake sonar count through May 21 was 333 salmon since the program start up on May 18. https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyareacopperriver.salmon_escapement ADF&G’s Copper River sonar objectives for May 21 show — a daily count need between 2,611 - 4,221 salmon and a cumulative count need of 8,173 — 13,211 salmon. ADF&G posted sonar counts document thousands of fish shortages in both categories — likely caused by icy conditions / delayed salmon migration from saltwater. Since the new Board of Fisheries regulation states that “The Copper River District may only open after May 21 by emergency order,” where is the required emergency order to open the Copper River District on May 22? and what scientific justification is there for providing a commercial opening when zero of the department’s eight daily sonar passage objectives and zero of the department’s eight cumulative sonar passage objectives had been met through May 21?

ADF&G’s preliminary harvest figures from the May 22 commercial opener were published as 962 Chinook (king) and 39,000 sockeye. Note: the cumulative salmon sonar count climbed to 1,153 by midnight Friday, so commercial salmon harvests outnumbered upriver migration counts at a ratio of over 34:1 by the end of Friday May 22.

On Saturday May 23, with continuing deficit-to-objective May sonar counts, the second Copper River Flats commercial opener was scheduled to occur on Tuesday May 26. Note: the second commercial opener was restricted to an area further from the Copper River terminus with saltwater. ADF&G announced, “This fishing area restriction is being implemented to ensure the achievement of the 21,000–31,000 Chinook salmon sustainable escapement goal.”

With zero of ADF&G’s Copper River (Miles Lake sonar) daily and cumulative upriver salmon migration objectives achieved, and the department having forecasted a “Weak” 2026 Chinook return — Why is ADF&G continuing 2026 management for additional Copper River salmon deficits upriver of the sonar during May?

ADF&G has classified the forecasted 2026 Copper River sockeye return as “Average,” but 11% below the recent 10-year average return (2016 - 2025). Sockeye numbers make up the vast majority of daily and cumulative sonar counts. Why does ADF&G continue to pile additional May commercial harvest on Alaska’s precious early season Copper River sockeye salmon resource — before any upriver sonar migration objectives have been achieved? It appears this practice, overtime, may decrease the long-term productivity of both early returning sockeye and king salmon.

In 2025 after nearly a decade of failure to achieve most of ADF&G’s daily and cumulative Copper River ADF&G sonar count objectives, the department reduced all its minimum May upriver salmon passage objectives by 40% or more. Are the department’s previous failures to regularly meet the higher pre-2025 sonar objectives indicating that early season over harvests / lack of escapement may already be causing serious declines in current and future May returns of both Copper River king and sockeye salmon? Could the continuation of commercially harvesting even beyond ADF&G’s reduced May salmon passage objectives accelerate the decline for two of Alaska’s most valuable salmon stocks?

All Alaskans desiring sustainable management of high-value early season Copper River king and sockeye salmon stocks — as called for in Section 4 of the State Constitution — should actively question ADF&G’s continued practice of May deficit Copper River salmon management. Annual evaluations of ADF&G commercial management staff should have consistent negative consequences whenever additional commercial openers are allowed before cumulative May / early June Copper River sonar migration objectives have been achieved.

Real Consequences for the Resource and Alaskan Users

Anytime cumulative sonar migration counts are under objective levels, and especially during May / early June, increases the likelihood of lost upriver king salmon and sockeye salmon harvest opportunities, and increases the likelihood of inadequate king salmon spawning escapement levels. Inadequate spawner escapements project to future years of lost harvest opportunities — for all user groups. Note: ADF&G’s forecasted total king salmon return of 33,000 fish only provides a 2,000 king salmon harvest surplus (for all use groups) over the 31,000 fish top of the Copper River Chinook Salmon SEG. Nearly 1,000 king salmon were reported harvested during the May 22 commercial opener, and even with a more restricted harvest area, there is high likelihood that approximately 500 or more king salmon may be harvested during the May 26 commercial opener. Therefore, after Tuesday’s commercial period there may only be 500 total harvestable surplus king salmon for the entire remaining fishing season (split between all user groups) before harvests start eating the SEG.

During years when the commercial fishery has been opened on the earliest possible date and allowed to continue salmon harvests even when May sonar counts have been below objective levels, those same less than objective sonar salmon migration numbers have frequently delayed openings of the upriver Chitina District personal use dip net fishery. Less than adequate early season king salmon migrations have also caused earlier season sport fishery restrictions, sometimes followed by total sport king salmon and personal use king salmon harvest closures. In the recent past, even “priority” saltwater and upriver subsistence king salmon harvests have been closed because of inadequate king salmon migration upriver.

Goal / Objective Based Management

It has been said, “Managing to meet spawning escapement goals is the bedrock of successful salmon management.” While an “early-run” spawning escapement goal may not exist for either Copper River king salmon or sockeye salmon stock, and while far upriver abundance indicators like aerial counts and Gulkana River tower counts may occur too late in the season for effective inseason management — Miles Lake sonar counts (that achieve each appropriate cumulative sockeye and king salmon migration objective before additional commercial openers are allowed) would more consistently achieve minimum Copper River salmon escapement objectives, while also providing more reasonable Copper River salmon harvest opportunities for all Alaskans (as directed in the State Constitution, Section 3).

For More Sustainable Copper River Salmon Management!

While Andy Couch is a member of the Matanuska - Susitna Borough Fish and Wildlife Commission and the Matanuska Valley Fish and Game Advisory Committee the thoughts and opinions expressed in this column are his own - unless otherwise noted.