COVID cases rise statewide, driven by new Delta variant and lax precautions

COVID-10 infections are rising again in most parts of the state, driven by the highly contagious Delta variant and summer activities where too many Alaskans are putting down their guard, state health officials said Thursday in a briefing.

The Delta variant, which began in India, has been in Alaska since April and is now the primary type of infection driving the increase.

“Delta is 50 percent to 60 percent more transmissible than Alpha, another recent variant, and Alpha was 50 percent more transmissible than the original virus that started in Wuhan,” said Dr. Joe McLaughlin, the state epidemiologist.

There are indications Delta is also more virulent than previous variants, and that may be behind an increase in hospitalizations that Alaskans are now seeing after an earlier decrease, McLaughlin said.

Also, 98 percent of hospitalizations are of people who have not been vaccinated. Major efforts are now underway to increase vaccination rate, which has fallen off in recent weeks.

“Fifty six percent of Alaskans have had at least one shot of the vaccine and 51 percent have had two shots,” the full dose that is needed for protection, McLaughlin said.

“Our vaccination rates were rising but now we seem just stuck at 51 percent,” and no longer increasing, he said That means about half the population is protected and the other half is unprotected.

One shot does provides some protection but not much against the new Delta variant, McLaughlin said. Studies are showing that one shot provides about a 33 percent to 35 percent protection against Delta but having both shots provides up to 88 percent protection.

Another development state officials are watching closely is are people fully vaccinated who are still getting infected. The numbers of the so-called “vaccine breakthroughs” are small right now but they are gradually increasing.

The state’s overall rates of infection are still low but are rising, a trend that worries state officials. The contagious Delta is one factor behind the increasing infections but much of it is driven simply by increasing social interactions and people no longer exercising caution by wearing face masks and proper physical distancing indoors.

In summer people spend a lot of time outdoors and that is helping limit the spread of infection, but this will end.

“We’re now very concerned about the start of schools in a few weeks, which means more time inside. We’ll be seeing colder weather, which will mean more time inside.

Overall, Alaska has seen 69,178 infections, 1,658 hospitalizations and 374 deaths, state officials said.

On a national level, federal officials said the Delta virus is likely to continue spreading in the U.S, through August and September, and possibly into October. “We expect a peak of the epidemic sometime near the end of September, a former Food and Drug Administration official, Scott Gottlieb told a CNBC program on Wednesday.

As on the state level, nearly all the hospitalizations and deaths have occurred among those who have yet to be vaccinated, Gottlieb said, on remarks published in The Hill, the national political newspaper.