Dems decry prediction of GOP romp

WASILLA — The predictions of a Southcentral political pollster has raised the hackles of Valley Democrats.

Kevin Brown, head of the Mat-Su Democrats, said his phone rang for three days after the Frontiersman ran a story citing Ivan Moore, an Anchorage-based pollster. Moore predicted, based on conversations with political insiders, a clean sweep for Republicans running for state office in the Valley.

“I don’t know who these people are, but I know they’re not out there with the candidates knocking on the doors and seeing the responses they’re getting,” Brown said of the experts Moore consulted.

Brown said the races are much more competitive than the pollster said, and he predicts a squeaker of a race in David Cheezem’s bid to take over for incumbent Republican Carl Gatto representing District 13 in the state House (Palmer and Hatcher Pass).

“I think that it’s going to be much closer than anyone suspected. I think that Cheezem can win. That’s not something I throw out there lightly,” Brown said.

He also said Erick Cordero is a strong candidate. Cordero is facing off against Linda Menard in a bid to replace retiring state Senate President Lyda Green.

“Erick wins over voters one at a time,” he said. “He finds people that are voting for Linda Menard and he convinces them otherwise.”

But it’s Cheezem who tops Brown’s list among Valley Democrats.

As to whether demographics might play a role in the race, if Palmer might be slightly less Republican than the rest of the Valley, Brown said, “Less by a matter of degrees. I mean, we are talking about the Valley.”

In the Valley, he said, nobody would, with a straight face, put a rabid liberal on the ticket and expect a victory. Cheezem and Cordero, he said, are decidedly moderate individuals.

Cheezem, who owns Fireside Books, is a known quantity in Palmer and has made a name for himself, Brown said.

“People notice that and they also notice that Carl Gatto really isn’t around until election year,” Brown said.

Gatto disagrees.

“Wow, you know, that hurts,” he said when asked to respond to Brown. He then went on to list a number of places he visits regularly — the Greater Palmer Chamber of Commerce, MTA and the Palmer Senior Center.

But Brown, who won a seat on the Palmer City Council Oct. 7, backed up his claims, saying, “I’m on the Palmer City Council. Carl Gatto has spoken to me exactly once in my life. … We make up a significant part of his district’s population and yet he doesn’t consult with the city about what are the city’s priorities.”

Again, Gatto begged to differ.

“He’s wrong, he’s wrong, he’s wrong,” he said. “The Palmer transportation committee that meets at 9 a.m. every Tuesday morning, I’ve been there, worried — not worried, but concerned,” about transportation issues in the city.

In essence, Gatto said he’s not sweating the election, pointing to a report published by an analyst who watches Juneau closely and compiled a list of 10 races that appear to be close.

“He analyzed the races, didn’t even mention mine,” Gatto said. “Of the 10 races he didn’t mention Gatto’s races at all.”

As to the larger question of whether this race is particularly challenging, Gatto said that, “It’s always challenging, as all elections are. And if you have an opponent who’s very aggressive, then it’s more challenging. But I’ve had aggressive opponents. … I’ve had people who are strong in the community. But I think I am, too.”

But, Brown said, citing recent campaign stops on the Republican side, it’s been interesting to see Republicans advocating for an all-Republican, unified Valley delegation to the state Legislature.

“They’ve all sort of circled their wagons and said being partisan is good because then you don’t have to work with anyone else,” he said. “I think they realize there are a couple of people that are pretty strong candidates, especially in the Gatto race.”

Contact Andrew Wellner at andrew.wellner@frontiersman.com or 352-2270.