Don’t bite the hand that feeds

Seems rather than simply swallow a healthy helping of crow, pollster David Dittman is blaming lethargic Alaska Democrats for the leads held by longtime state political powerhouses, U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens and U.S. Rep. Don Young.

Both incumbents are enjoying leads following last week’s general election, but there are still thousands of early and absentee ballots to be counted. Although Stevens and Young haven’t yet won, they certainly hold the inside track.

Dittman seems poised to pull a couple feet from his mouth after he made a last-minute prediction as local polls closed last Tuesday. The prominent Anchorage-based prognosticator boldly stated Democrats Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz would beat Stevens and Young soundly.

At the Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman, we’ve published the reports from another prominent Anchorge-based political pollster, Ivan Moore. While predicting the outcome of political races can sometimes be as fickle as predicting the weather, Moore was on target that Republicans would not only win again in local Valley races, but win big. Moore also predicted Begich and Berkowitz wins, but admitted in his last column that those polls were wrong and tried to analyze the reasons why. What’s puzzling with Dittman is why he would, after-the-fact, allow ego to override the simple truth: he was wrong.

One shouldn’t go out on a limb unless you’re prepared for that limb to break, which is what happened. For Stevens, recently convicted on seven felony charges, and Young, also under a cloud of speculation about whether he’ll be next in the scope of federal prosecutors, being in position for re-election are huge victories.

Dittman believes many Alaska Democrats were simply disenfranchised from voting because they assumed Republicans would win big with state voters. Confident Barack Obama would win the presidency with or without Alaska’s three Electoral College votes, they didn’t bother.

That argument might hold water if the numbers backed it up. So far, Alaska voters are on pace with other recent general elections with 45.2 percent of the state’s registered voters casting ballots on Tuesday. Add the thousands of outstanding ballots yet to be counted and that total is expected to push past 50 percent. That’s close to the 51.11 percent who voted in 2006, when Gov. Sarah Palin won her current office. It will likely be less than the 65.9 percent who turned out in 2004.

That said, it’s unlikely so many more Republicans voted and Democrats stayed home this past week since it seems the final tally will come close to the 2006 turnout.

That Republicans win the popular vote in Alaska is not necessarily breaking news. What is notable, however, is one of the state’s most trusted political pollsters making a last-minute prediction, then blaming a party’s voter apathy for his being wrong.

There’s an old adage in the news business that goes: “Dog bites man” is not newsworthy, but “Man bites dog” is a front-page headline. Late Tuesday, Dittman bit the dog and shouldn’t complain now that a last-minute blunder is biting back.