EDITOR’S COLUMN: Ride the Redskins Rule all the way to Oscar night

Polls.

You can choose to believe them. You can choose not to believe them.

But if there’s one indicator with greater proven statistical accuracy than any of them, it’s this: When the Washington Redskins win their final home game before a presidential election, the party currently holding the White House retains the White House.

Since 1936, this predictor has held with the one exception being the last, the 2012 race when the Redskins lost to the Carolina Panthers 21-13 but Barack Obama went on to win re-election comfortably.

Let’s call that the exception that proves the rule.

So what does this prophecy predict about the Clinton-Trump race? Well, it’s as bizarre as the 2016 campaign season itself.

This weekend, the Redskins have a bye — figures. The week before that, they were the designated home team against the Cincinnati Bengals in London, England. That game, of course, ended in a 27-27 tie. Also figures.

Go back to the last actual Redskins home game stateside and your calendar flips to Oct. 16 when Washington defeated Philadelphia 27-20.

If that’s the signal amid the noise it’s good news for Hillary Clinton. If, whatever forces that make this trend so steady view that tie at Wembley Stadium is the standard bearer, well, then God save the Queen.

With that in mind, it’s time to roll out my picks for election night.

Notice I say, mine, not ours.

I’ve never been real comfortable with trying to speak for the newspaper, and maybe even more than that, I believe official newspaper endorsements are rather old fashioned and, frankly, stupid.

The Frontiersman, so long as I have anything to say about it, is not a paper that will ever seek to tell you whom to vote for, but one that aims to keep you adequately informed, entertained and connected.

With that, and the indefatigable Redskins’ juju in mind, I think I’ll offer up some version of Pigskin Picks.

Every year before the Oscars, I’ve noticed film critics will often use the tactic of discussing which film or individual they think should win, buttressed by a prediction of which film or individual will win.

Let’s have some fun…

U.S. President

Who should win: Hillary Clinton (D)

Who will win: Hillary Clinton (D)

As polls close in the rest of the country at the same time Alaskans are getting off of work, I think the narrative will be that an even bigger than expected turnout of Latino voters, especially in early voting, will be the highlighted demographic that carries Clinton to the electoral college landslide that was predicted a month ago.

That’s the will of the matter. The should comes down largely to the fact that Trump isn’t fit to be President. It’s not because he has no experience in government or that he lacks a dignified temperament. It’s that he doesn’t really want to be president, evident in the fact that he’s spent more on hats than his actual campaign.

As Louis C.K. pointed out the other night on Conan, Trump is someone who can’t stand criticism and threatens to sue anyone who criticizes him harshly. But when you’re president, everybody hurls wild insults and accusations at you and, being president, you can’t sue.

Hillary, on the other hand, we know will just take it.

Sure, Trump has closed much of the gap in polling in the final weeks, but it’s kind of like the way NFL games all wind up kind of close. Inside the 2-minute warning, Trump still needs to score a touchdown, get the onside kick and score another touchdown — with no time outs — just to force overtime.

Not gonna happen.

Alaska U.S. Senate

Who should win: Lisa Murkowski (R)

Who will win: Lisa Murkowski (R)

Six years ago, Murkowski pulled out a political miracle after losing to Joe Miller in the Republican primary, riding a write-in campaign all the way to Washington. In a kind of similar fashion, Miller is trying to turn the tables running as the Libertarian candidate, but there’s just two problems with that. 1) Miller doesn’t have the name recognition or appeal to moderates Murkowski did, and 2) Joe Miller is about as Libertarian as mayonnaise.

Alaska U.S. House

Who should win: Don Young (R)

Who will win: Don Young (R)

Being a dyed-in-the-wool FOIA-style journalist, Democrat Steve Lindbeck has spent the brunt of his political energies trying to take down Congress’ longest serving and oldest representative.

Lindbeck was head of Alaska Public Media, which, I must say is the best local NPR news shop I’ve heard anywhere in the country, but to try to take take Young down with nitpicking personal scandals here and there, just isn’t going to cut it.

I mean, Don Young has been in the U.S. House since 1973, the year of Watergate, the years when pork barrel politics and quid pro quo backroom deals were as American as apple pie. We should all be disappointed if, in all that time, Young wasn’t tainted with accusations of shady dealings.

That would mean, in all that time, he wasn’t horse trading on behalf of all Alaskans.

Alaska State Senate

State Senate Seat D

Who should win: David Wilson (R)

Who will win: David Wilson (R)

A no-brainer given that Wilson is running unopposed, but be on the lookout for this still-sitting Wasilla City Councilman to be a rising star in Alaska politics.

State Senate Seat F

Who should win: Shelley Hughes (R)

Who will win: Shelley Hughes (R)

While it’s cool in Alaska these days to rip on the last legislature as a ‘do-nothing’ bunch, Shelley Hughes maintains as steadfastly and passionately as anyone that she and her colleagues did the best they could over the summer in Juneau.

She’s knowledgeable, sensible, and in the primaries withstood a huge push from her right to hold on to the coveted Republican endorsement.

Her opponent, non-affiliated Tim Hale is an entertaining cat who’s got some good ideas and isn’t afraid to share them. Look for his stock to continue to rise, though at some point, he’s going to have to find a party.

State House District 7

Who should win: Colleen

Sullivan-Leonard (R)

Who will win: Colleen

Sullivan-Leonard (R)

A long-time member of the Wasilla City Council, planning commission, involved with local government to every degree, and with a family pedigree rooted deep in Alaska politics, it’s definitely time for Colleen Sullivan-Leonard to make her mark in Juneau.

Her Democratic opponent, Sherie Olson is a very nice person with good intentions, but this is a total mismatch.

State House District 8

Who should win: Mark Neuman (R)

Who will win: Mark Neuman (R)

Neuman’s held this seat since 2004, he engages the public, and his seat is one of the few Democrats saw no shot at taking as they try to take back the House. Even a candidate stronger and better backed than Gregory Jones would stand little chance at unseating Neuman.

State House District 9

Who should win: Pamela Goode (ACP)

Who will win: George Rauscher (R)

With the full backing of the Alaska Republican Party, which made the unusual choice of revolting against its own sitting House member in Jim Colver, George Rauscher stormed to victory in the August primary.

With that hard-earned R sitting prominently next to his name, Rauscher hasn’t participated much, if at all, in the public campaign.

Pamela Goode, of the far-right Alaska Constitution Party, has been out meeting as many Alaskans as she can, educating them as much as trying to persuade them on the complex way funds are funneled, and ultimately wasted in Alaska.

Still, that R means something in District 9, probably too much for Goode to overcome.

State House District 10

Who should win: Patricia

Faye-Brazel (D)

Who will win: David Eastman (R)

Certainly the ugliest of race in the Mat-Su Valley, this one pits Faye-Brazel, a Bernie Sanders grassroots organizer who’s received heavy backing from the Alaska Democratic Party against newcomer David Eastman.

To the delight of more than a few Valley Republicans, Eastman knocked off long-time representative Wes Keller in the August primary, but doesn’t seem to have put forth a whole lot of effort since then.

Like Rauscher, Eastman can probably ride that R next to his name all the way to victory, which has led the Dems to try to lure him out of his corner with personal attacks — the first a kind of innocuous and semantic one about a reference to Oxford on his resumé, but their second attack — born of a FOIA request of his records as a firefighter in the Mat-Su Borough, show he’s been on just six calls in two years, is of some concern.

Eastman hasn’t answered requests for response on either charge, though State GOP chair Tuckerman Babcock rushed to his defense with an explanation of the first.

But then again, why should Eastman respond to anything? After all, he’s got that R next to his name.

State House District 11

Who should win: Bert Verrall (NA)

Who will win: DeLena Johnson (R)

I believe this is the most interesting race to watch Tuesday night.

The Republican has won this seat in 11 straight elections, and that’s a trend former Palmer mayor DeLena Johnson hopes doesn’t end with her.

On the other side, Bert Verrall has run a very strong campaign, using diverse tactics to get his message out, and getting a spirited groundswell of followers on his side.

In debates, the two have differed very little on the issues, making this one all about campaign strategy.

Verrall has probably executed the better plan, but, in a tight one, I think Johnson carries the streak of Republican wins to 12.

State House District 12

Who should win: Cathy Tilton (R)

Who will win: Cathy Tilton (R)

Much like Hughes, incumbent Cathy Tilton vehemently defends the record of the state legislature she was part of against attacks from the public.

Unlike Hughes, Tilton has attacks coming from the left and the right, with Constitution Party firebrand and effort to impeach Gov. Walker organizer Karen Perry, and Democrat Gretchen Wehmhoff.

Tilton’s defense of the house’s record differs a little from Hughes’ in her constant phrase that sometimes the best deal you make is no deal at all.

Should be enough to get her back to Juneau.

Well, there you have it.

Again, not our endorsements, not my recommendations, just my take on Oscar night, now just two days away.