Election proves Republicans continue to rule Mat-Su politics

The more things change, the more the stay the same. Over the past two years the coal-bed methane issue, questions of unethical behavior and a sense of broken promises have all delivered body blows to the image of the Republican Party of Alaska. One incumbent state senator from the Mat-Su resigned in the midst of a recall effort, and other Valley legislators were challenged more strongly in the 2004 election campaigns than they have been in years.

The outcome was yet another Republican sweep in the Mat-Su. And, though some of the races were closer than in recent years, none could be described as nail-biters. The closest margin of victory was in House District 15, where Republican candidate Mark Neuman outpaced second-place Independent Myrl Thompson by about 1,000 votes.

Neuman is a virtual newcomer to Valley politics, but he defeated longtime incumbent Beverly Masek in the primary, and then ran in the general election as the only Republican in the District 15 race.

In spite of all the controversy surrounding statewide and Mat-Su Republicans, the party affiliation may have been Neuman's strongest credential. After 10 years in the Legislature, Rep. Vic Kohring is an expert on the subject of Valley politics.

"Just having an "R" after your name in a Republican area is a big help," Kohring said.

Mike Chmielewski ran as a Democrat for House District 13 against Republican incumbent Carl Gatto. Gatto garnered about 67 percent of the vote. While Chmielewski noted several reasons why he might have lost, he recognized the power of the party.

"People have said to me, 'One day you'll learn to run as a Republican,'" Chmielewski said. "I think that says something. People aren't looking at who you are as a candidate, but at whether you're an 'R' or not."

Simply changing your party affiliation is not likely to make the difference, though. There are philosophical principles that continue to resonate in this community even as the population grows and changes at an astounding rate.

What do we believe?

"I do think that philosophically there hasn't been a dramatic shift in the last 10 years, even with the new people coming in," said Sarah Palin, former Wasilla mayor and the current conscience of the Republican party. Her revelations about improper activity by Republican Party Chairman Randy Ruedrich led to his departure from the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.

"I think Valley residents support conservative values," Palin said. "I honestly believe these legislators are going back down to Juneau because, in general, the agenda they've supported has been job creation, less government -- all those motherhood and apple-pie issues that people here support."

"I don't think the pendulum [of public sentiment] is swinging," Kohring said. "As I go door to door I keep hearing the same things from people. I think it goes beyond just philosophy, really.

"They see me as somebody they like, not because I'm a nice guy, but because I've been very hands-on and involved in grass-roots effort and a lot of constituent work. I enjoy working with people and helping people," Kohring said, "and that's more important than going to Juneau and writing and passing legislation."

The notion that someone is willing to roll up his or her sleeves and do the work in the trenches, and the idea that they share the personal values of the common people, goes a long way in Valley politics.

"Across the state, 78 percent of the people are not registered in the Republican party," Palin said. "I think the common-sense working man and woman in the Valley aren't going to put party before the person."

Palin said the local candidates survived all the controversy because they were judged as individuals instead of as Republicans, and because the legacy of the party is strong.

"The Republican Party, except for some knuckle-headed decisions, is traditionally a party that supports an agenda of independence. That independent spirit is still strong here in our community," she said.

"I think there is a climate change," Chmielewski said. He qualified that by saying the change is a slow process, and that it is largely dependent upon perseverance.

"The thing that makes a difference is a candidate who's willing to lose an election and keep going," Chmielewski said. "I won't drop away. Myrl [Thompson] isn't dropping away."

To him, the anti-CBM movement is a bellwether for the general attitude in the Mat-Su.

"The success and high participation of people involved in the CBM business is a reminder to people," he said. "What will happen is, if things begin moving the direction of a bad choice, the public reaction will be like it was with coal-bed methane. I can count more than 10,000 voters in the Valley who voted 'no' to the incumbents, and they're not just scattered, and they can be organized."

Gatto believes the main current running through the Valley is a conservative one, however, and he doesn't see that changing.

"This is a central area where it seems to be very Republican," Gatto said. "Love of God, love of country."

He said the term "family values" still resonates as well here as it always has, and he defined those values as being defined by an intact, two-parent family, abhorrence at the idea of aborting babies and valuing education.

A freak storm?

There is still some debate as to whether the voices of opposition have been loud but few or constant and many.

Coal-bed methane development was a unifying issue that brought together people from many walks of life and wearing many different political stripes, but was it an aberration or a sign of things to come?

Sen. Scott Ogan became the lightning rod for the entire conflict, and the subsurface leases that ran beneath countless homes and lots became the rallying cry for an organized and intense grass-roots movement.

Once Ogan resigned and the bulk of the leases were returned to the state, some of the gas was out of the balloon.

Chmielewski said he believed some of the results would have been different in this year's election if Ogan had remained in office, and if the leases had remained in the hands of developers.

Gatto believes the Legislature's response to the CBM uproar defused the situation even before the leases were returned. He admitted there were some potential ramifications from CBM development that caught him by surprise, but he said the Legislature solved those problems after listening to people's concerns.

"It was possible to walk up on someone's lawn, give them 20 dollars and start drilling," Gatto said. "It was unlikely, but to the people who own the home, it's so important. We solved those problems with House Bill 531. It's nice to have somebody's word on something, but it's better to have a contract, and that contract is HB 531."

Lessons learned?

The question that remains is, with what could be construed as a clear mandate, will legislators continue to listen to all voices, and will they conduct their work in the light of day?

"I don't know why they wouldn't want to listen to other local voices," Palin said. "After 10 years in local government I know that in order to achieve progress you do need to listen to all sides."

"I do toe a strict philosophical line," Kohring said, "and the election result is somewhat of a mandate. Still, I try to be open-minded. We have a responsibility as legislators to listen to all sides -- conservatives, liberals and everyone in between."

"That's what I do," Gatto said. "I listen to everyone. I find that more interesting, anyway. Why would I want to only talk to someone who has the exact same views as me? The solution to the CBM problem was a Democrat and Republican solution."

"I'd just like to see more people as a part of the process," Palin said. "That's why I'm glad there were some good challenges in these races. I'd like to see more of that."