Election watch: No surprises in statewide races and ballot questions but legislative races could see upsets

Election night held no surprises for Alaskans, at least in the big statewide races. As expected, President Donald Trump will carry the state, and U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan and Congressman Don Young appear to be easily reelected, although substantial number of absentee ballots are yet to be counted.

In state legislative races, however, there were surprises. For the most part Republicans appear to have prevailed, but five veteran Democratic legislators appear to be in trouble, although the absentee ballot count next week may make a difference in these.

Mat-Su legislators in both the House and Senate were easily reelected. These include Republican Sens. Shelley Hughes and David Wilson, and House Republicans Reps. George Rauscher, DeLena Johnson, Cathy Tilton and David Eastman.

Two closely watched ballot measures appear to be doing down big in the first-day vote. Ballot Measure 1, which would raise oil taxes, received 60 percent “no” votes. Ballot Measure 2, an election reform measure, received a similar apparent rejection with 55 percent “no” votes.

Despite vigorous campaigning on both ballot measures by proponents and opponents the outcomes on Nov. 3 came as no surprise. Both proposals are complicated and when faced with proposals not easily understood in the voting booth people typically vote no.

Absentee votes will shift the percentages on these but with such a large lead the “no” votes are likely to prevail for both measures.

The surprises, in legislative races, include Anchorage Sen. Bill Wielechowski, a Democrat, who was trailing his opponent, Madeline Geiser, on Wednesday. Anchorage Rep. Chris Tuck, a Democrat trailed his GOP opponent Katherine Wednesday, as did Rep. Ivy Spohnholz, also an Anchorage Democrat, who was behind her challenger, Republican Paul Bauer.

Rep. Matt Claman, D-Anch., trailed Republican Lynette Largent Tuesday night but by Wednesday had a slim lead. In Fairbanks, Rep. Adam Wool, a Democrat, trailed Republican Kevin McKinley Wednesday. Similarly, Democrat Grier Hopkins, also of Fairbanks, was behind his GOP opponent, Keith Kurber.

In Southeast Alaska, Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins trailed his Republican challenger, Kenny Skaflestad.

All of these outcomes could change with the absentee count. There are a large number of absentee ballots and votes cast early, about 130,000, that will be counted starting next week. Approximately 193,000 ballots were voted and counted Nov. 3.

Typically, Democratic candidates tend to do better with absentee and early voters while those voting in person tend to favor Republicans, experience has shown. The ultimate counts may result in some of the endangered Democratic legislators surviving and also shrinking the margin of Republican winners.