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When I talked with Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) Area Sportfisheries Biologist, Samantha Oslund this week, she was anticipating the Upper Cook Inlet Forecast for sockeye salmon should be made available to the public soon, and she was also expecting an announcement concerning Chinook (king) salmon regulations to be issued — possible sometime this week — so it could be available by the time this column is published.
Last year saw an incredible return of sockeye salmon to the Kasilof and Kenai Rivers on the Kenai Peninsula with a sockeye salmon sonar count of 1,197,471 fish through August 9 on the Kasilof River. While some of those sockeye were harvested above the Kasilof River sonar, the sonar count exceeded the Kasilof River sockeye salmon optimal escapement goal of 140,000 - 370,000 fish by more than 827,000 fish.
Like usual, the sockeye salmon return to the Kenai River was significantly larger than the Kasilof return, with a Kenai River sonar count of 4,286,091 sockeye salmon through August 19 in 2025. The inriver sockeye goal for the Kenai River in 2025 was 1,100,000 - 1,400,000 fish, providing harvestable surplus sockeye for inriver users upstream of the sonar counter in addition to the Kenai River sockeye salmon sustainable escapement goal. The Kenai River sockeye salmon return upstream of the sonar counter exceeded the top of the inriver goal by over 2,886,000 sockeye salmon during 2025. Note: There was also substantial personal use harvests of sockeye salmon below the sonar counters on both the Kenai and Kasilof Rivers during 2025.
The best sockeye salmon sport fishing I heard of in the Upper Cook Inlet area north of Homer, occurred on the Kenai and Kasilof Rivers. I was hearing reports of better than normal sockeye fishing starting in May on the Kasilof, while I started hearing about better than normal sockeye fishing on the Kenai River in early July.
2025 Mat-Su Valley sockeye salmon weir counts were 59,987 fish at Chelatna Lake through August 18. 31,706 sockeye counted at Larson Lake through August 19. 58 sockeye were counted at Deshka River through August 6. 991 sockeye were counted at Little Susitna River through September 9. 42,573 sockeye were counted at Fish Creek through August 30. 2,121 were sockeye counted at Jim Creek Weir through September 11. The total 2025 Mat-Su sockeye salmon count through six ADF&G salmon counting weirs was therefore 137,436 fish — the Kenai River alone had 12 daily sockeye counts that exceeded the total number of sockeye counted at the 6 Mat-Su Valley weirs during the entire 2025 season.
When the Department’s 2026 sockeye salmon forecast for Upper Cook Inlet becomes available there should be projections for sockeye returns at the Kenai River, Kasilof River, Susitna River drainage, and Fish Creek, and likely a totaled estimate for smaller systems. That forecast was historically produced to help commercial fisheries and packing plants plan for the coming season of commercial fishing. It could also be helpful for Mat-Su anglers in planning places they may want to fish next summer. Large sockeye salmon returns to the Kenai River, in particular, usually mean the ADG&G commercial fisheries manager provides considerably more commercially fishing time in an effort to harvest surplus Kenai River sockeye salmon. When that occurs the Northern Cook Inlet (and Mat-Su) bound salmon are also harvested at a higher rate, and may return to Northern Cook Inlet and Mat-Su drainages in lower abundances.
Chinook (King Salmon) Although the Department was still discussing what they were planing on for Upper Cook Inlet king salmon regulations when I talked with Samantha Oslund earlier this week, she did let me know that the Deshka River outlook was the poorest — ever. Last year the only place anglers could legal harvest (or target) king salmon in the Mat-Su Valley was the Eklutna Tailrace / Knik River side-channel terminal hatchery fishery. At this time, that is the only location where I allow charter fishing guests to make a king salmon fishing reservation with me for the 2026 fishing season. At this time I do not anticipate much opportunity to catch any ocean-run salmon — other than king salmon in the Mat-Su Valley through at least the end of June. Look for ADF&G’s king salmon announcement / press release to be out and posted on their website sometime this week or next week. https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=home.main
ADF&G Announces Prince William Sound Shrimp Meeting — Thursday February 12, 2026 from 7 - 8:30 p.m. online by Zoom. For more information follow this URL link: https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/sf/EONR/index.cfm?ADFG=region.NR&Year=2026&NRID=3969
Good Luck and Fish On!
Although Andy Couch is a member of the Matanuska - Susitna Borough Fish and Wildlife Commission and the Matanuska Valley FIsh and Game Advisory Committee the thoughts and opinions expressed in this column are his own - unless noted otherwise noted.