Flu vaccinations in short supply, so let'€™s be patient

State health officials say nearly 600 doses of H1N1 vaccines will be arriving in the Valley Thursday or Friday. Given there are tens of thousands of people living in the Mat-Su Borough, that’s not even a drop in the proverbial bucket.

But it’s a start.

While we wait for more vaccines to arrive, we need to show our courteous side. The young, the infirm and the pregnant need to be at the head of the shot line. People who are not in those categories should wait.

The president has called the swine flu invasion a national emergency. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 1,000 people have died due to this strain of flu. As of late September, five of those were Alaskans. In emergencies, people have to help out. In this case, healthy, older people can help out by putting off getting their injections until all the priority groups have been given the shots or nasal sprays.

The CDC is now calculating the rate of flu cases per 1 million people. CDC charts project that Alaska, Idaho, Oregon and Washington will have 3,799 cases per million. That ranks sixth in the 10 regions. Using an estimated population of 686,293, that means about 2,600 Alaskans will get swine flu. A study done in Canada last summer and Mexico last spring showed a death rate of 7 percent in Canada and 17 percent in Mexico among those with the flu requiring hospitalization. Of course, most people who get the flu won’t need critical care, so the number of deaths in Alaska should be minimal.

One thing that could be problematic for Alaskans is that we travel a lot. Region 5, the upper Midwest, has a rate nearly three times Alaska’s, so if you visit Chicago or Minneapolis or Detroit, your chances of getting the flu go up dramatically and then you bring it home and share it with the rest of us. Region 9, which includes Hawaii, also has a rate of about three times Alaska’s, so you might reconsider that winter vacation to the Islands.

By now, you should all have heard what we can do to minimize the outbreak — cover sneezes, wash hands, stay home if you are sick. If we all do those things, and get shots, Alaska should weather this coming storm in good shape.