Gaming the November election results

Alaska’s Aug. 16 primary election gave a pretty clear indication as to who the ultimate winners in November will be in many state House and Senate seats. Still, a number of House races appear close enough to go either way. How these elections break will determine how the state House organizes, whether under Republican leadership or once again a coalition of Democrats and a few breakaway Republicans.

Republican House members will likely be led again by conservatives from the Mat-Su. Rep. Cathy Tilton, R-Wasilla, Is the current House Minority Leader. However, there are Republicans like Kodiak’s Rep. Louise Stutes who will not organize with the Mat-Su legislaors, and if there are enough of these, the House might again have a coalition. Meanwhile, it looks quite possible for the Senate to organize with a coalition, but even that depends on one or two close races.

Incumbents generally did well in both House and Senate campaigns but one notable exception is in the Mat-Su senate race where Republican Sen. Mike Shower trailed challenger Doug Massie, also Republican, in the primary election. In Anchorage, Sen. Mia Costello, Republican, trailed her opponent, Matt Claman, a Democrat now in the House. This race could help decide whether there is a coalition in the Senate.

Rep. Andy Josephson is in a tight race for reelection in an Anchorage House ditrict, trailing Republican Cathy Henslee by one vote in the primary election. Reallocation of ranked-choice votes under the state’s new voting system will decide these contests.

Under ranked-choice voting, the top four vote-getters on the ballot, regardless of partisan affiliation, are listed on the November ballot. In all but a Fairbanks House district, there were four or fewer candidates, so voters will see the same names again. In Fairbanks’ House District 35, there were five running, so Kieran Brown, an independent, was eliminated after placing fifth.

In all but Brown’s race the primary was a kind of poll with voters showing their preferences. Since few voters change their preferences in the weeks between Aug. 16 and Nov. 3, the likely November winners are obvious, particularly if there is a big difference between the top vote-getter (usually an incumbent legislator) and the closest competitor. However, November will have ranked-choice voting where voters will indicate second, third, and fourth choices if there are that many on the ballot.

In many races, one candidate was seen enough in front in the primary election that the reallocations under ranked-choice won’t change the outcome. But for many races that are closer, mainly in the House, ranked-choice will make a difference, and how that will happen is impossible to predict.

Inevitably there will be new faces in Juneau. Several legislative veterans, like Democrats Rep. Chris Tuck and Ivy Spohnholz, are not running for reelection. Several House members are seeking Senate seats, like Reps. Kelly Merrick, Republican, of Eagle River, and Rep. Matt Claman, Democrat of Anchorage. This creates more openings in the House for new legislators.

One senate race to watch is in south Anchorage where incumbent Sen. Roger Holland faces a strong challenge from Cathy Giessel, a former senator. Democrat Roselynn Cacy, also in that race, did surprisingly well considering that the district leans Republican. Under ranked-choice, all three appear again on the November ballot, and this is one race where reallocated second and third choices are likely to have an impact.

It’s too early to guess final outcomes with any accuracy, but at this point, it appears that in the 40-member House, 17 Republicans and nine Democrats are likely to be elected, with five independents or nonpartisan legislators likely to win. The remaining races are close and could go either way, based on the Aug. 17 results. It’s possible a clear Republican majority could happen, but a coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats is also possible.

In the Senate, 11 Republicans and nine Democrats are likely to be returned by voters, but here, a coalition is considered more likely than in the House. That’s because several veteran Republican senators sure to return, like Senators Bert Stedman of Sitka, Gary Stevens of Kodiak, and Click Bishop of Fairbanks, have strong disagreements with conservative Republican senators, from the Mat-Su delegation, on issues like the Permanent Fund Dividend.

It’s also possible that another even split in the 40-member House is possible, with 20 Republicans and 20 Democrats aligned with independents and moderate Republicans. If the recent past is any indication, nonaligned or independent incumbents, like Bryce Edgmon of Dillingham and Daniel Ortiz of Juneau, who are sure to be reelected, are likely to organize with Democrats along with several other independents.

Who organizes the House and Senate is important because it determines who the leaders and committee chairs will be, which sets the stage for which bills advance. However, the uncertainty of a near-even split could again lead to prolonged delay in organizing the House, which will slow legislative business. It will take 21 votes in a House Majority for any legislative business to be done, even the election of a House Speaker. However, it will really take 22 or a few more to ensure a stable Majority so that important bills, like the budget, can pass. The likelihood of any Democrats or even independents joining conservative Republicans appears dim, so a functioning House will need a handful of Republicans crossing the aisle. That has happened in the recent past, but whether it will happen again this year is a big unknown.