How many salmon will return to Mat-Su in 2012?

After a May, June and early July when king salmon returns seemed to be low throughout the entire Mat-Su Valley, Kenai Peninsula, Copper Valley, Kodiak Island, Western Alaska and the huge Kuskoquim and Yukon River drainages ,Mat-Su salmon fishing-related business and salmon anglers are already questioning at what level of abundance will the four later arriving species of salmon will be returning to Mat-Su streams during the last half of the summer?

Early indications have not been good. Further south, the famous late-run Kenai River sport king salmon fishery was restricted to artificial lures only from the start of the July 1-31 season. On July 10, the Kenai River personal use dip net fishery was closed to the retention of king salmon, and the sport fishery was further restricted to catch and release fishing for king salmon — with the exception that king salmon jacks and king salmon over 55 inches in length could be harvested. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) has indicated that further restriction could occur. In reality, the next logical step would be entire closure of the Kenai River late run king salmon fishery.

Because of low numbers of returning king salmon and low numbers of returning sockeye salmon, the Kenai and Kasilof sections commercial set net fisheries have already had regular fishing periods closed by emergency order. Set net fisheries in the Northern District adjacent to the Mat-Su Valley have also been closed for multiple periods because of low abundance of king salmon. In addition, mentioning the painfully obvious for Mat-Su sport salmon anglers, all Mat-Su Valley king salmon fisheries (except the small hatchery return at Eklutna Tailrace) were first restricted, then closed early, by ADF&G emergency orders.

With all that lack of fishing opportunity for both commercial and sport fishers, one might think in the early portion of July, returning salmon species could be arriving in Mat-Su Valley spawning streams in greater abundance, right? Wrong.

As of July 10, in addition to passing more than 13,000 king salmon, the Deshka River Weir has only passed 62 pink salmon, six chum salmon, and no coho (silver) salmon. The picture is just as bleak at the ADF&G operated weir on Fish Creek near Knik-Goose Bay Road where not a single sockeye salmon has passed the weir, yet. ADF&G will be installing the Little Susinta River weir at a downstream location early next week, with hopes of immediately starting to count chum and coho salmon at that location. Over the past week, starting from July 4, I fished one trip and guided four other salmon fishing trips on the Little Susitna River.

During each trip, we spent a considerable amount of time working the intertidal portion of the river searching for early arriving chum, coho, sockeye or pink salmon. So far, I’ve yet to see a single one of these fish, and no one in my boat has hooked one of them during the months of June or July. On other years (while guiding king salmon charters) it has not been unusual to catch some chum, coho or sockeye during this period incidentally while fishing for king salmon.

Granted, it is still early for these other salmon species to be arriving in significant numbers, so what does a lack of early returning salmon indicate?

In years with large salmon returns, anglers tend to catch more fish early in the season, more fish in the middle of the season and more fish late in the season. A lack of fish early in the season could indicate less-than-average salmon returns. On the other hand, perhaps salmon species that return to Mat-Su Valley streams during July, August and early September may be arriving a bit late in 2012.

I’m hoping for the later, of course, but I’m already considering the first situation.

What’s a Mat-Su salmon angler to do?

My household will travel to the Kenai River to participate in the personal use sockeye salmon dip net fishery during the next week. For the past several years the Kenai River has provided an opportunity to harvest an abundance of sockeye salmon. Yes, it is a long way to travel to catch salmon that should also be abundant in Mat-Su Valley streams; however, it may provide a more significant harvest opportunity for Alaskans looking to obtain a winter’s supply of salmon.

As an added benefit, harvesting more abundant sockeye salmon in the Kenai River dip net fishery may allow more Mat-Su Valley salmon to spawn and produce future abundances of Mat-Su salmon. Upper Cook Inlet personal use fishing permits are available to Alaska residents at the Palmer, Anchorage and Soldotna ADF&G offices. In order to maximize limited fishing time, Mat-Su angler may find it more time efficient to obtain a personal use permit in Palmer before traveling to the Kenai Peninsula.

Mat-Su king salmon updates

As anticipated last week, Deshka River reached its king salmon escapement range on July 7. Last week, I also sent an emergency petition to the Alaska Board of Fisheries requesting that the Deshka River king salmon fishery be re-opened below the weir, with bait fishing allowed after the goal was attained. On July 11, the Board of Fisheries denied the petition.

On a positive note, the Deshka goal range was attained. Also of note is that while no one on my boat managed to hook any chum, coho, pink or sockeye salmon on the Little Susitna River, we did observe what seemed to be an unusually large abundance of late king salmon in the lower river. Therefore, I am hopeful the Little Susitna River king salmon spawning escapement goal may be obtained later this month when ADF&G conducts aerial escapement counts. Reports I’ve heard from Willow Creek and Montana Creek do not sound as positive for king salmon spawning escapement numbers.

Andy Couch owns and operates Fishtale River Guides (fish4salmon.com) is a Mat-Su Anglers Club member (matsuanglers.org) and member of the Mat-Su Borough Fish and Wildlife Commission.