If we say ‘no’ to new schools, then what?

We value thriftiness and responsibility in our personal budgets and we expect our elected representatives to reflect these values when they make decisions about spending our public money.

But, we see a storm on the horizon as the Mat-Su Borough School District tries to sell voters — and some elected officials — on the idea that a 50 percent population increase since 2000 has resulted in the need to add, repair and replace $232 million in school facilities.

This seems like simple math: More people = a need for more school facilities. Here’s some of that math mixed with a little local history.

The borough was incorporated in 1964 and a decade later had 145 students graduate from its three high schools — Palmer, Wasilla and Susitna Valley.

This year, 12 schools in the borough will graduate 1,348 students. And Palmer High, with 150 graduates, will promote more seniors than the entire borough did a generation ago in 1974.

During the 1999-2000 school year, about the time of the last U.S. Census, the district had 13,000 students. This year, that number is about 17,000. In fact, that’s about the same rate of growth — 4,000 students a decade — that the Mat-Su Borough School District has experienced each decade since 1980.

So if it seems like all we’ve accomplished for the last 30 years is build school after school, well, you are right.

Whether there is an end in sight to the Valley’s decades of rapid growth depends on whether you ask borough Mayor Larry DeVilbiss or an economist with the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Neal Fried.

Shortly after DeVilbiss was elected, we scratched our heads when he told us the Valley’s growth spurt was over.

“All indications are that our huge growth spike that happened three or four years ago has leveled off,” he said.

Curious, we called the labor department’s Fried, who told us the Valley has had a 30-year growth spurt and he’s not at all sure it’s over.

“None of us knows what’s going to happen in the next 10 years, but most forecasts are dependent on what happened in the past,” Fried said. “In previous decades, the Valley has grown fast as well, but even more so now.”

If Fried is right and growth continues at its current pace, in 10 years we will need schools to house an additional 4,000 students.

Yes, we can chose not to build, repair or replace the schools that district students need now.

But then what?

Voting against the $232 million school district bond will not eliminate the need. Neither would a “no” vote absolve the borough of its responsibility to provide schools and education for residents.

We inherited a responsibility to fund education in the borough when we organized as a borough in 1964. Education is one of three mandatory powers all organized boroughs in Alaska have. The other two are planning and land use regulation, and property assessment and taxation.

If we say “yes” to this bond package, we can also save by capitalizing on a state debt reimbursement program that would pay for between 60 percent and 70 percent of the cost.

If the Mat-Su Borough Assembly and voters drag their feet on this it will be our children who pay through larger class sizes, poorly maintained schools and more bond indebtedness later.