Impact of bridge discussed

May 8, 2005

DAWN DE BUSK/Frontiersman reporter

PALMER - Fifteen years after a proposed Knik Arm bridge goes up, lands lying outside Port MacKenzie's industrial zone would become saturated with residential dwellings, probably high-cost homes on small lots, according to Tom Brigham, senior transportation planner with HDR Alaska Inc.

"Given the market forces and not much regulations, which is traditionally how the borough grows, what areas would grow more quickly and which would develop more slowly?" Brigham asked, during a brainstorming session Wednesday attended by land-use planners, real-estate agents, engineers, economists, borough employees, farm promoters and other knowledgeable community members.

The session, which took place in the Mat-Su Borough's administration building, was designed to determine how growth patterns would change if the Knik Arm crossing were installed.

Brigham, who presided over the session, asked everyone to focus primarily on home development and infrastructure needs, although the issue of providing adequate water systems entered the conversation several times.

Participants relied on trends they've seen in real-estate demands in the Valley to estimate where growth would take place should a new bridge provide greater accessibility to the borough. Some of the driving factors that would affect where homes are built include land price, land value, proximity to jobs, ability to sustain well and sewer systems, and the quality of water.

Darcie K. Salmon, a real estate agent who serves as vice chair for the Knik Arm Bridge and Toll Authority, said the construction of a bridge connecting Anchorage and the Valley would relieve congestion in the Mat-Su and Eagle River, where subdivisions are developing rapidly.

"The bridge is a pressure release for Anchorage to get away from a cosmopolitan area and to alleviate a nightmare of off-ramps into Eagle River," Salmon said.

The assembled group agreed that Anchorage-minded people, who don't mind living on smaller lots, would move closer to the port, while land with bigger lots and fewer neighbors would remain available farther north.

"People used to move to the Valley for the rural experience. People who move out there (Point MacKenzie) will want the amenities like water and sewer," said Sara Jansen, Palmer's community development coordinator.

In three years, Settlers Bay expanded from 62 to 400 homes, according to Salmon.

"I perceive Settlers Bay to be equal distance from Wasilla as Meadow Lakes is. Those folks are going to get sick of commuting and develop their own community, with businesses and grocery stores," he said.

Land along Knik-Goose Bay Road will be built out at a rapid pace despite any timeline of bridge construction; however, an over-water infrastructure will make the land more valuable.

Fairview Loop, which connects to KGB Road, has also experienced rapid growth. There was some talk that a more aligned road would change the character of that area for the better.

Burma Road direly needs to be widened and upgraded, and no one argued against that.

"It's an assumption that Burma Road will be improved," Brigham said.

With Burma Road going on line, there will be more commercialization in Big Lake, according to Jody Simpson, a borough assembly member who represents that area. In order for residential development to take place, she said, better public water systems must be addressed first. Houston and Big Lake will become more vibrant with the installation of a bridge and adjoining infrastructure.

Many buyers have found a second or vacation home in Meadow Lakes subdivision. Although the area is a coveted spot, wetlands and lake regulations will hold growth in the area to a moderate pace, participants predicted.

Could the population boom on the 20-year horizon put pressure on lands set aside for recreational purposes, agricultural use, or designated as wetlands?

Brigham predicted that by that time, there would be a necessity to remove the covenants on agricultural lands northwest of the port so parcels could be subdivided and sold.

There would be opposition, but unfortunately only from a small group, according to Rob Wells, president of the Mat-Su Farm Bureau Chapter.

"By 2525, chances are better that some state lands could be sold at public auction," Salmon said.

The large chunk of land located northwest of the deep-water port and owned by the Alaska Mental Health Trust would likely be sold as well, Brigham said.

Some acreage in the Valley seems to be more insulated from the potential bridge, slated for completion by 2010. Those prime areas anticipate growth regardless of whether a bridge is constructed.

The available parcels along Palmer Fishhook and Wasilla Fishhook should continue to be popular because of good land, excellent views and good water. Most residential areas are a short trip from either Palmer or Wasilla, if not located close to both towns.

On the other hand, growth is less lively along Trunk Road, mainly because of poor water and possibly because of uncertainties over a timeline to straighten the road.

The information HDR gathered will be compared against results of a past brainstorming session looking at potential growth trends without the bridge.

Contact Dawn De Busk at 352-2252, or dawn.debusk@frontiersman.com.