Is a Valley gas line just a lot of hot air?

We weren’t exactly surprised to learn last week that the Mat-Su Borough is making a strong pitch for routing a possible natural gas pipeline to Point MacKenzie. After all, the folks with the big ideas at the borough have had their eyes on that pipeline for quite some time.

Now that our collective hat is in that ring, we have two questions. How likely is this to happen, and is it a good idea, economically speaking?

On that first score, having been lead down this road a number of times by various politicians with competing ideas about what makes the most sense, we conclude a Point MacKenzie terminus for the gas line is on the less-likely end of the spectrum of possibilities.

The borough makes a convincing argument that a large quantity of gas should be sent to a community in the heart of the state’s existing natural gas infrastructure. There would be gas for Southcentral, tidewater to export it to Asia and an apparently very accommodating local government.

But advocates of a Valdez terminus hold a big trump card: the trans-Alaska pipeline.

Following the existing route from the North Slope to Valdez yields efficiencies in a number of places, not least of which is securing rights of way to land needed for the project’s construction.

Anyone who’s been following news in the Valley has observed enough right of way fights to know simplifying this struggle will be an attractive option for the parties who will make the final decision on a pipeline.

The borough has an uphill fight if it’s going to win this one over Valdez. We think our current assembly will be strong advocates for the project, and so we think we’d be foolish to disregard this option.

But what about that second question — is it a good idea?

In the past five to 10 years, the Frontiersman’s coverage of energy issues has taken on an ominous hue as local utilities worry whether there is enough natural gas coming out of Cook Inlet to meet Southcentral’s growing energy needs.

We’ve heard phrases like “brownout,” “frozen homes,” “emergency shelters” and “catastrophic” used to describe an unlikely, worst-case scenario that utilities from Matanuska Electric Association to Enstar are working to avert. Routing the line to Southcentral seems to make some kind of sense, but we wonder if it makes sense economically.

We’d love to erase the worry about adequate supplies of natural gas in Southcentral. We’d love it if MEA’s fledgling Eklutna power plant had a stable supply of gas to fire it for decades.

In the end, however, we’re certain this is a question of economics. The whole point of natural gas is that it’s a cheap, abundant supply of fuel. But if it can’t be delivered here affordably, that point evaporates.