Is this Mat-Su's Warmest Winter

Everybody's talking about the weather.

With good cause. In recent weeks, the weather has thrown a kink in the plans of everybody from dog mushers to snowplow drivers. The Tesoro Iron Dog 2000 snowmachine race and Fur Rondy dog races were canceled. The Iditarod restart was moved north. The U.S. Alpine Championships, slated for Girdwood next month, were moved to the Lower 48, where, ironically, Easterners spent last week trying to dig their way out of several feet of snow in some places.

In the Valley, snowplows and snowmachines sit idly in garages, next to ski poles and bunny boots. Meanwhile, trees are sprouting pussy willows and there have even been unconfirmed reports of mosquitoes scouting the area.

The question on many lips is, is winter over? Has spring sprung already?

Weather Service specialist Elliot Frazer says the Anchorage and Mat-Su areas are well on their way to setting a record for the warmest winter on record. "Right now, this is the second warmest winter -- at least since record-keeping began. But we stand a real good chance of being the first," Frazer said.

The last time average winter

temperatures were this high, Jimmy Carter was president and Captain and Tennille were singing "Love Will Keep Us Together." Sylvester Stallone was starring in "Rocky" and a first-class stamp still cost 13 cents.

"The warmest winter we have on record was November to March of 1976 to 1977," Frazier said. The average temperature that year was 28.6, he said. So far this year, from November until now, the average is right at 28 degrees even, he said.

Temperatures for the beginning of this week were forecast to range from lows in the mid 20s to highs in the low to mid 30s, with a chance of snow on Sunday. If that holds true, Frazier said, and temperatures don't drop unexpectedly before the end of March, the winter of 2002-2003 could very well win the honor of being the warmest on record.

Predicting the weather?

However, the Weather Service isn't willing to speculate on temperatures too far in advance, Frazier said. "Seven days is about as far as we'll go with accuracy," he said.

If you're really curious, however, there are a few sources to utilize.

The "Old Farmer's Almanac" describes in detail how to butcher a pig spleen to determine what kind of winter it will be. (Here's a tip: make sure to use a fall pig, spring pig spleens are not nearly as reliable). Whether or not the Almanac used that element for their own long-range forecast is unknown, as their Web site states it is determined by the use of a secret formula devised in 1792 by the founder, "enhanced by the most modern scientific calculations based on solar activity, particularly sunspot cycles."

But this year's long-range forecast wasn't too far off the mark … it at least predicted that, "with the exception of December, November through March will be two to three degrees milder than normal." They also predicted our below-normal precipitation.

Or, you can just have a look around you. In Australia, if you see a black snake on the road it means rains are coming. Singapore residents know, if the raven crows, expect rain. In the Czech Republic, they have a saying, "If there is in October much snow, it will be much snow in winter."

Since ancient times, people have been looking to nature to help predict and explain the weather. In Alaska, the clues are everywhere -- pussy willows and mosquito sightings notwithstanding.

In an Alaska Science Forum article, science writer Ned Rozell pointed out that Koyukon Indians say the winter's snowfall is predicted by snowshoe hares. "If the hares leave wide footprints in the fall, it indicates extra-furry hind feet, a sign that heavy snowfalls will follow."

Rozell also talks about Kutchin Indians from Chalkyitsik, who say that black bears can predict how severe a winter will be. "Prior to a mild winter, the bears will make their sleeping places close to the den opening; if a cold winter is ahead, bears will sleep far away from the opening."

And then, of course, there's always good old Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog who, on Feb. 2, predicted six more weeks of winter. But Phil lives in Pennsylvania, not Alaska. "If I lived on the East Coast, I'd probably go along with that," Frazier said. "But here [in Alaska], all bets are off. It's been too weird of a season."

The cold, hard facts

Even those who don't set much store by animal behavior might have seen it coming. According to data on the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Web site, three of the last 17 Februarys have been warmer than usual.

This year, the average temperature for the first few weeks of February has been 31.5, Frazier said. Comparatively, NCDC data puts the average daily February temperature at about 18. The average daily temperature for March is around 25 -- depending on your location in the Valley.

Of course, warmer temperatures also make for less snowfall. Frazier explained that there is no Weather Service office in the Valley, so there is no data on snow and rainfall, only temperature, wind speed, and certain other conditions. However, information gathered in Anchorage shows a significant decrease from the norm.

So far this season, the Anchorage area has received 28.7 inches of snow. That's 15.5 inches less than the norm, Frazier said. Even if you take into account that precipitation fell in the form of rain instead of snow, he said, this winter is still drier than normal.

In February, "we had 11 straight days with rain and no snow," he said. "So the rain made a difference for February, that's for sure. But overall, we're still below normal."

Is this a trend?

Is it global warming, or just a fluke? Frazier said, "Is global warming a viable possibility? A lot of people believe so. But there is a school of thought that this is all part of a normal cycle."

Kelly Redmond, Regional Climatologist at the Western Regional Climate Center, said our warmer winter is not only "part of a succession of warmer winters, but in fact part of a larger pattern in western America." He said the entire West Coast, from Alaska to British Columbia to Seattle, is having a milder than normal year.

Why? "Nobody can give the definitive answer," he said. "Whether this is a local signature of global warming, nobody can say." However, scientists are also looking at several factors, specifically a pattern of warmer ocean temperatures, to explain the weird weather on land.

"There are variations in the temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, about on the order of every 50 years," Redmond said. "In the last 25 years or so, there's been an increase in temperatures … in 1976 there was a sharp jump, a large-scale phenomenon that went all the way down to the Equator."

This temperature difference may be only two or three degrees, he noted. "And that sounds small. But that's a lot of heat in the ocean, and the effects are magnified on the land."

Scientists aren't sure, Redmond said, but it is believed these fluctuations may be part of a cycle in which every 25 years or so, ocean temperatures go up a few degrees and then back down again. "We haven't seen very many of these cycles, in part because in some places, record-keeping just doesn't go back all that far."

And furthermore, "the long and short of it is, nobody really knows why it's doing this."

But Redmond stressed that the temperature anomalies seen this winter are "really something" to the people who spend their days studying weather phenomenon. "These numbers are really quite striking," he said, "and it's giving a lot of us pause to think. It's territory we very seldom visit."

He added, "I mean Talkeetna was [overall, on average] 7 degrees higher than normal for last year, which is a lot. I mean, a lot," he said. "Anchorage was 13 to 14 degrees higher than normal at times. And this is not just a winter thing -- it goes back to last May or June for most of the state."

What does that mean for the Mat-Su Valley? Redmond said there are some indications that the warming part of the cycle has peaked, and that temperatures may be heading back down again soon. But not too soon.

"We're getting into late February now, and it's kind of hard to get a really strong cold snap at this point," he said. And temperatures stay as far above normal as they have been, Spring, he said, could come early.

But he doesn't advise getting out the bathing suits and barbecue gear quite yet. And when asked if a warmer winter might mean a warmer summer as well -- or conversely, a colder one -- Redmond said there really is no predicting it. "That really is the tough question," he said. "We just don't know."

But there's always folk wisdom.

As one old American legend has it, "Warm Christmas, cold Easter." In Australia, they'll tell you cobwebs on the grass means fair weather is to follow. In Singapore, it is believed that when bubbles rise to the surface of coffee and hold together, warm weather will come.

Then again, in Italy, they have a saying. "One swallow doesn't make spring." They have another saying, too: "Marzo pazzerello." March is crazy.