J's World: It’s time to change the way teams for the Division I state hockey tournament are selected and seeded

Regardless of what happens during the Northern Star Conference Championships in Soldotna this weekend, there’s a really good chance one team will see its season end a week too soon.

“There are three legitimate teams that should be playing in the state tournament,” Colony head coach Jamie Smith said recently.

Smith is referring to his Knights, the Homer Mariners and the Wasilla Warriors, the top three seeds in the tournament, which started Thursday at the Soldotna Sports Center. Smith is right. Colony, Homer and Wasilla are all state tournament- caliber teams. Put together a list of the top 8 teams in the state. Colony, Homer and Wasilla should be on there.

But at best, only two of those squads will move into the Division I state tournament, which starts Feb. 8 in Wasilla. The NSC has only two automatic berths. Only one-third of the teams in the North Star will skate in the state tournament. Half the teams in both the Cook Inlet and Mid-Alaska conferences will move on to the state tournament.

The eight-team CIC gets four berths. The four-team MAC gets two.

The Division I bracket is seeded using this ridiculous rotation, matching up teams based on conference finishes.

It’s time to ditch it all. Start from scratch.

The Alaska Schools Activities Association needs to allow hockey to take a positive step forward and follow the lead of prep basketball in the state. ASAA uses the Winning Percentage Index, a formula that takes into account a team’s winning percentage and the winning percentage of its opponents, to rank Alaska’s 3A and 4A basketball programs. The WPI is also used to seed the state tournaments at the 3A and 4A level. ASAA also has a pair of at-large bids for the 4A boys’ and girls’ state tournament brackets. The at-large bids are awarded based on WPI.

Hockey needs the same.

Hockey deserves the same.

Let’s start with the rankings. Implement a WPI for hockey, or something similar. There is enough inter-conference play to get accurate results. Let’s take Colony for example. Outside of NSC play, Colony played all four MAC teams and three CIC teams that have already clinched a spot in the 2018 state tourney.

Use the formula to seed the bracket. Say goodbye to the stupid rotation of matchups based on conference finish. No more MAC No. 1 against CIC No. 4 or CIC No. 1 meeting NSC No. 2.

I want the top team in the state, based on the formula, to see the eighth team in the state.

Ditch the current set of automatic bids. Yes. Anchorage’s Cook Inlet Conference is Alaska’s historical hockey power. But the competitive balance has improved. There are the years the CIC sweeps the first round. It’s happened twice in the last six years. But it’s no longer what’s expected.

In three of the last four tournaments, a North Star squad has advanced to the semifinals. The CIC is still the strength, but for folks outside the municipality, it’s progress.

The CIC’s four automatic berths are, now, too many. There is no way that the four-team MAC should have two teams automatically go to state. I can live with two automatic berths in the North Star, as long as there is an opportunity for an at-large berth.

Reduce the CIC to three and the MAC to one. Feature two at-large berths, and award with the rankings. If CIC teams grab the two at-large berths and send four teams to state, so be it. But at least it’s based on what happens on the ice, not because of an out-of-date model.

These changes will spark interest. The at-large bids have made 4A basketball more interesting. But most of all, ranking the teams with a formula and including at-large bids will create a better state tournament.

Contact Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman sports editor Jeremiah Bartz at sports@frontiersman.com.