J's World: Plenty of playoff scenarios as teams enter final week of regular season

The Palmer Moose were a win away from clinching the Railbelt Conference title. Now, best-case scenario, Palmer is potentially looking at a first-round playoff matchup against six-time defending state champion Soldotna.

But that depends on what happens in Week 8.

The Moose dropped to 5-2 overall and 2-1 in conference play with their 19-14 loss to Lathrop at Palmer High last week. But the byproduct might be tougher to take than the loss itself. Palmer’s playoff fate its out of its hands. The Moose cap their regular season at Wasilla Friday night in the 40th annual Potato Bowl, a nonconference game. Lathrop’s regular-season finale at West Valley Friday night will decide which two teams will represent the Railbelt in the Division II playoffs.

So, will the Moose be score watching or will there be a social media ban on the Palmer sidelines Friday night?

The Malemutes are now in the driver’s seat. With a win at West Valley, Lathrop finishes 3-0 in conference and wins the region title. West Valley (1-1) would be eliminated with the loss, and Palmer gets the No.2 seed.

With a West Valley win, things get more complicated. There would be a three-way tie with West Valley, Lathrop and Palmer locked at 2-1. All three teams would be 1-1 against each other, and the second tiebreaker would have to be used. That’s point differential among the teams tied.

Lathrop is currently leading with a +5 (a 19-14 win over Palmer). Palmer is at a -1 (a 20-16 win over West Valley combined with the 19-14 loss to Lathrop). West Valley follows at a -4 after the loss to Palmer. The scenario leaves to ways the Moose can make the playoffs. Aside from a Lathrop win Friday, a West Valley win by four or less would also put the Moose in the postseason. Lathrop’s point differential would still be the best of the three, giving the Malemutes the No. 1 seed. The No. 2 seed would be decided by head-to-head, a Palmer win over West Valley.

Dizzy yet?

If Palmer does land in second place in the Raibelt, the Moose could meet state power Soldotna in the playoffs for the third straight year. But after consecutive battles in the Division II championship game, this would be a semifinal contest. Of course, that’s if SoHi takes care of business against rival Kenai Central this week. A SoHi win over Kenai gives the Stars yet another conference title. A Kardinals upset would leave Soldotna, Kenai and Eagle River tied at 2-1.

Time for more tiebreakers.

Of the six conferences spread across three divisions in the state, only one conference, the Peninsula, has its playoff teams set. With a 34-8 win over Nikiski last week, Houston (6-1, 4-0) earned its first outright conference title in school history. Ketchikan (5-1, 2-1) clinched the No. 2 seed in the Division III playoffs with the Nikiski loss.

It’s all part of a historic season for the Hawks. Houston has a six-game winning streak for the first time ever, and will host a playoff game for the first time since 2002.

Houston is one of two teams that officially clinched a conference title in Week 7. Bartlett (6-1, 3-0) cemented the Chugach Conference championship with a 40-0 victory at Wasilla. Colony (6-1, 2-1) and Wasilla (3-4, 2-2) have both clinched playoff berths, but the seeds will not be decided until Colony hosts Chugiak (1-6, 1-2) Friday night. With a Colony win, the Knights are the No. 2 seed followed by Wasilla and Chugiak. If the Mustangs score the upset, things get interesting with Chugiak, Colony and Wasilla all tied at 2-2 in conference play. Chugiak would need to beat Colony by 37 or more points to earn the No. 2 seed in the conference. Wasilla would be the fourth seed in that scenario.

A Colony win or a Chugiak win by 36 points or less give the Knights the No. 2 seed, and place Wasilla third.

Still dizzy?

In the Cook Inlet Conference, the four playoffs teams are set. East, Service, South and West are in the postseason. The conference crown is still up for grabs. East (3-0 in conference) and Service (2-1) meet in Week 8. The winner finishes first in conference. With an East win and West victory over Dimond, Service, South and West would finish in a three-way tie at 2-2.

Here’s where the mind starts spinning.

If East beats Service by less than 55 points, Service is second, West is third and South is fourth. If East beats Service by 55 or more, South is No. 2, followed by Service and West.

A Service win puts the Cougars No. 1 and East No. 2. A Service win and West loss places South No. 3. A Service win and West win puts West No. 3 and South fourth.

With an East win and a West loss, East would win the crown and be followed by South, Service and West.

That’s what we have on paper. We will see how it’s settled on the field.

Contact Frontiersman editor Jeremiah Bartz at sports@frontiersman.com.