LEAN TIMES

MAT-SU — This summer will prove Alaska is not isolated from the country’s economic downturn.

The summer normally brings an influx of money and jobs from the tourism industry, but the outlook for this year is dim.

“I would be tickled pink if we were flat this year,” said Ron Peck, president and chief operating officer for the Alaska Travel Industry Association. “Advanced bookings are down statewide. From Ketchikan to Fairbanks, from Tok to Kodiak, we are seeing bookings down 10, 20, 30 percent from last year.”

Bonnie Quill, executive director of the Mat-Su Convention and Visitors Bureau, reported an industry summit in Fairbanks predicted a 20 to 40 percent drop in tourism-related business in 2009.

A shrink in the tourism sector could contribute to a slowing of Alaska’s economy, said state economist Neal Fried. Because it makes up such a large portion of the economy, Alaska is vulnerable to the woes of the rest of the country.

“This shows that we don’t operate in isolation,” Fried said.

This summer will be the first decline of a sector that has always experienced growth, he said.

“This is a completely new experience,” said Fried. “It’s hard to tell exactly what will happen. There will be negative impacts on employment, and some places will be hit harder than others.”

Fried said the Mat-Su will be better off than the towns in the Southeast because it draws more Alaska residents to its destinations, but business owners here do not share his optimism.

“Normally at this time, I have three bookings left out of 90 trips,” said Dan Lewis, a fishing guide from Wasilla. “This year, I only have three booked.”

“Low,” is the answer Linda Haynes of Rainbow River Expeditions gave when asked for her early season numbers. When pressed for more details, she simply said, “Bad.”

Susie and Craig Seiberg say advanced bookings at Gate Creek Cabins are down 15 percent from last year at this time. Mavis Devore is worried Mount Redoubt will keep more people away from her Denali Fireside Cabins this summer.

John Binkley, president of the Alaska Cruise Association, said there has not been a drop in the number of passengers coming to Alaska via cruise ship this summer, but there are less passengers purchasing the land tours.

“That will affect Talkeetna, the Valley and Fairbanks,” said Binkley. “My own family runs stern wheel river boat tours in Fairbanks, and we are down about 38 percent. We’ve been doing that since 1950, and this is the biggest downturn we’ve ever seen.”

Peck at the travel association said the one glimmer of hope might be the highway system in Alaska. Fuel prices are down since last summer, and people might see this as a good chance to take a road trip, Peck said.

Tell that to the people who are not calling Great Alaskan Holidays, said Daryl Bennett, founder and president of Alaska’s largest RV rental company.

“Our rentals are off substantially for this year,” Bennett said. “Normally, we don’t advertise locally, but we are this year. […] We are seeing an increase in local rentals because people are doing the ‘staycation’ and spending their money here instead of going out of state.”

By all accounts, local travelers book later than out-of-towners and could offset some of the pre-season lows.

Targeting Alaskans is the tactic recommended by Bonnie Quill at MSCVB. They recently launched a website called Valley Values — www.alaskavisit.com/valleyvalues — where members can post discounts to target a more local audience.

“Businesses need to increase instate traffic by adding extra value,” said Quill. “What can you add to your product to bring in more business?”

ATIA initiated a similar program at www.alaskashottestdeals.com. The goal is to point in-state travelers to these value-added deals.

“We’re hopeful this will generate additional interest and Alaskans will spend their discretionary income here,” said Peck, “but only time will tell.”

This tactic will have to work not only this year but next year as well, as 2010 already looks more dire than 2009, said Binkley.

Cruise lines release their itineraries 12 to 14 months in advance. The routes for 2009 were set before the worst of the economic events happened.

“Deployment schedules are just coming out for 2010,” said Binkley. “That’s when we see a significant decline in the ships coming to Alaska.”

Contact Todd L. Disher at todd.disher@frontiersman.com or 352-2252.