Legislative session is underway; no one knows where things will end up

The 2021 state legislative session convened in Juneau Tuesday, Feb. 19, as required.

It was an odd start, appropriate for the year of COVID-19.

Usually, the start of a two-year Legislature is a festive time with new lawmakers being sworn in with family and friends present, and lots of flowers and good cheer even among political rivals.

This year, however, the capitol building in Juneau is locked down with extremely limited access not only because of the virus and pandemic but because of threats of violence by right-wing groups unhappy over President Donald Trump’s defeat in national elections.

The wheels of government will continue to turn, however. At least in Juneau.

What’s also unusual this year is that no leaders have yet been selected in either the House or Senate. The 40-member state House is split 20-20 between Republicans and Democrats aligned with a couple of independents and one dissident Republican. With a 20-20 standoff the House cannot elect leaders or assign people to committees and cannot legally function.

The 20-member Senate has a 13-7 Republican majority over Democrats but there are sharp disagreements among the 13 Republicans over issues like the Permanent Fund Dividend, or PFD. Just as in the House, the Senate cannot function until an organization is agreed on.

It’s possible, or even likely, that coalitions of Republicans, independents and Democrats may form in one or both bodies to fill positions.

It’s happened before. In fact, in the perspective of history, it’s common.

The late Jalmar Kerttula, a legendary long-time Mat-Su legislator who was both Speaker of the House and President of the Senate, presided mostly over Republican-Democrat coalitions and was always careful to include a regional as well as partisan balance so no region or group of Alaskas felt shut out.

It’s unclear which issues will rise to the top except for larger PFDs paid in 2021, which are being championed by Gov. Mike Dunleavy.

The governor is also pushing a change in the way the PFD is calculated, and constitutional amendments to guarantee the PFD in the Constitution; to establish a state spending cap and to require approval by voters for new taxes. Dunleavy has proposed these before but was unsuccessful.

If the Legislature agrees, the changes to the Constitution would appear on the 2022 general election ballot.

The governor is also proposing a statewide capital projects general obligation bond issue, which the Legislature will assemble this year. It must also be on the 2022 general election ballot.

Mat-Su legislators have listed some of their priorities in bills that were pre-filed before the start of the legislative session.

Sen. Shelly Hughes, R-MatSu, is proposing performance reports for schools, early education funding and other school reforms along with, in a separate bill, public disclosure of health care pricing, municipal regulation of health care pricing and other aspects of pricing.

Sen. Mike Shower, R-Mat-Su, prefiled a bill on election reform, tracking of absentee ballots, an election offense hotline and penalties for opening and tampering with sealed ballots or tampering with packages of ballots.

Sen. David Wilson, R-Mat-Su, has again introduced his bill to change the Certificate of Need, a permit requires for health care providers making major capital investments.

In another prefiled bill, Rep. George Rauscher, a MatSu Republican, is proposing a system of audits of CARES act grants to municipalities and communities, and community assistance programs. Rep. DeLena Johnson, R-Mat-Su, is proposing immunity from liability for health care workers exposing clients to COVID-19 and for businesses and employees.

Sen. Peter Micciche has again introduced a bill for reforms in alcohol regulation and penalties, a complex proposal that has been in the works for years and came close to passage last year.

Tom Begich, D-Anch, prefiled a bill relating to early education and a grant program for grants for essential workers to enroll in post-secondary education. Begich is also proposing a bill on energy efficiency of public buildings, energy audits and functions of the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority along with changes in the state oil and gas property tax in a separate measure.

Rep. Adam Wool, a Fairbanks independent, has prefiled a bill imposing a personal income tax and a tax on “S” corporations, which are now shielded from tax. Rep. Sara Hannan, Democrat from Juneau, also prefiled a personal income tax bill.

Which of these bills has a chance actually becoming law will depend on how the House and Senate are ultimately organized. Who is chosen as presiding officers is vital because the Speaker of the House and President of the Senate decide which committees bills are assigned to.

Decisions on who chairs committees, and the division of seats on committees between the partisan majority and minority, is crucial for when and even if bills will be scheduled for hearings and if the bills move out of committee.

Under an all-Republican leadership Democrats’ bills often get short shrift, and vice versa, when Democrats lead. But not always. Skilled and persuasive legislators often find members of the other party to cooperative with on legislation.

In terms of numbers in the House and Senate, Mat-Su is influential with nine House members out of 40 in the House and three state senators of 20 in the Senate.

For all practical purposes MatSu has four senators since Sen. Lora Reinbold, R-Eagle River, is philosophically aligned with conservative MatSu legislators and often votes with them.