Legislature not likely to go on a shopping spree in 2006

Frontiersman editorial board

Gov. Frank Murkowski seems to be taking the same approach to dollars that soldiers take to cigarettes. Spend 'em if you've got 'em. Last year there was a projected Constitutional Budget Reserve draw of $363 million, but unexpectedly high oil prices have turned that into a $650-million surplus. The governor wants the Legislature to spend about half of that on capital improvements, education, law enforcement and other programs.

This could prove to be a hard sell in a Legislature that was largely elected on the promise of fiscal conservatism. These are legislators who have often said they want to treat the people's money as they would their own. In fact, the expectation from voters is that the Legislature will be even more careful with the state budget than many Alaskans are with their personal budgets. That's going to be at the heart of the budget debate in 2005.

Working in the governor's favor is the fact that many of his budget proposals will sound appealing to Alaskans. Badly needed road work is on the list. A large boost in education funding is on tap, and so is an increase in law enforcement. It's hard to argue against the need for any

of those things.

Still, the governor's budget will be swimming against a long-established current of cautious spending. Alaska legislators know all too well how a surplus this year can become a deficit next year, and that boom-and-bust climate has made them squeamish about writing checks just because the state is looking momentarily flush. Contributing to that caution will be the usual infighting that takes place when a limited amount of capital is available. Every legislator will go to Juneau intent upon helping his or her own district. They'll be quick to point out why their projects are critical while projects in other districts are little more than grabs for pork. That's going to leave at least some of Murkowski's projects out in the cold.

The destructive power of this surplus will likely have its strongest effect on Murkowski's cherished POMV plan. He argued in favor of that approach to a fiscal plan by sounding the alarm about a pending fiscal crisis. Now he's looking for good places to spend extra cash instead. He'll present the fluctuation as a further reason for a fiscal plan, but legislators aren't likely to hear him over the sound of the ringing cash register.