Mat-Su a bright spot in state, economists say

PALMER — State economists gave a pep talk at the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District administrative chambers Nov. 17, citing overall job growth, growing population numbers and even housing prices at a meeting hosted by the district, “The State Fiscal Cliff and Local Demographics.”

In his report for the district, Neal Fried, economist with the Alaska Department of Labor, presented a series of good-news graphs that showed the Mat-Su faring better than most of the state in a time of low oil prices that have resulted in layoffs on the North Slope and sparked a state budget crisis. Revenue-sharing with local governments is expected to decline sharply as the state’s fund for it dwindles to zero over the next few years.

That’s going to put more pressure on local governments, with those relying more on locally-raised revenue in better shape than others. The borough assembly approved a fiscal year 2017 budget that won’t see an increase in the mill rate over the previous year. Growth in the valley could help area towns and cities get through the tough times ahead better than some of their counterparts around Alaska.

The Mat-Su saw 500 additional jobs in 2016, a number roughly comparable to the previous three years but far short of the 3,400 high in 2012, just three years after a post-recession loss of 900 in 2009.

Fried said Alaska Dept. of Labor and Workforce Development research shows the majority of valley residents, at 55 percent, work in the borough, while 30 percent commute to Anchorage. Another nine percent work on the North Slope, with the remainder traveling other places around the state for employment.

The data does not include military personnel, federal workers, or the self-employed.

In the current economic environment, working in the city and living in the valley continues to be an attractive option taken up by many, with annual average earnings higher in Anchorage — $56,822 compared to $42,731 in the Mat-Su – but lower housing prices lower in the valley and gas-per-gallon not high enough to provide a disincentive.

Eddie Hunsinger, also an economist with Alaska Dept. of Labor, presented on school district and overall population changes in the Mat-Su, citing a continuing growth trend that isn’t expected to stop any time soon. The borough, in total, passed the 100,000 population mark in 2015.