Mat-Su growth remains in league of its own

TRACY KALYTIAK/Frontiersman staff

Mat-Su is still the fastest-growing area of the state, with a brisk 3.9 percent annual growth rate and a population that has now topped 70,000, according to 2004 estimates released Thursday by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and the U.S. Census.

Nearly 11,000 of Mat-Su's new residents appeared here within the last four years, according to the estimates released for Alaska's 27 boroughs and census areas, as well as 354 places located throughout the state.

Of the 10 boroughs and census areas that gained population since the 2000 census, only the Municipality of Anchorage surpassed Mat-Su, with 52 percent of the total gains for those areas compared to Mat-Su's 32.6 percent. Natural increase -- births minus deaths -- and migration caused that growth.

"The Valley stands out and sticks out," Neal Fried, an economist with the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, said Thursday. "It's not like anything else. The Valley is the only place that's growing with any strength. You're in your own league as far as population growth. You're growing at 3.9 percent, but you've been doing that for a long time. It starts adding up to real numbers."

Why is Mat-Su growing so fast?

Fried says a combination of factors is influencing the pace of the Valley's growth, among them land availability, a robust and competitive housing market, booming economy and a growing interdependence between the Valley and Anchorage.

Mat-Su was the only area in the state whose growth came primarily from net migration -- which is calculated by subtracting out-migration from in-migration. Net migration accounted for why 8,424 people out of Mat-Su's total population increase of 10,826 showed up here since the 2000 U.S. Census. Half of those "in-migrants" moved to the Valley from other places inside the state, and most of those people moved here from Anchorage.

"If a Martian were looking down on us from somewhere else, he'd say it was one broadly defined community," Fried said of the connection between Anchorage and Mat-Su. "We have political subdivisions, but from an economic standpoint, it's really one economy."

Fried said Anchorage and Mat-Su are now seen as one labor market.

"Let's call it one because it just makes sense," he said. "If you're not looking at both, you're not looking at the whole thing. One has an effect on the other. Let's say there's a new-home buyer who wants a two-garage, single-family home. That's become very much more difficult to afford in Anchorage and more affordable in the Valley. You get a lot more for your money and it's not that far for the labor market."

Fried said Mat-Su's growth began accelerating through the 1990s, when its annual growth rate reached 4.0 percent. Since 2000, the Valley's growth has clocked in at an annual rate of 3.9 percent.

"What set you apart this last decade is that the Valley has generally grown faster," Fried said. "You're one of the only places that's growing fast. Before, other places were growing fast. It can only be really pinned on your area."

The Knik-Fairview area now has the distinction of being the fastest-growing census-designated place of the state, with a 6.4-percent annual growth rate since the 2000 census. The Fishhook area increased in population by 5.8 percent and the Tanaina area grew at an annual rate of 5.3 percent.

Fried said this growth isn't confined to Knik-Fairview, Fishhook and Tanaina, however.

"It's even happening in Talkeetna, Palmer," he said. "Big-time growth. The interesting thing is, all the areas they mention are in the Valley. The only reason Homer is in there is because it annexed somebody. That's just artificial. Every one of these places you mention are in the Valley. It sort of tells you you're in a unique spot. The rest of the state is going entirely the other direction."

Fried said figures on this year's report didn't surprise him.

"We've been watching this a long time, it happened last year too," he said. "If someone wasn't familiar with Alaska, I think a lot of people would be surprised. It really pops out. Someone else in the state, it does surprise them."

Fried says the population surge is propelling Mat-Su's economic growth.

"Obviously the spinoff is employment growth," he said. "The big driver is population growth. Home Depot and Lowe's are opening satellite offices. A lot of businesses in the state are looking for opportunity in places that are growing fast. The only place like that is the Valley. At some point for different businesses, it makes sense for them to open their own operation there rather than service the Valley out of Anchorage. There's plenty of population to support it. It's growing fast, you have to assume that growth will continue."

"Growth is an attractor as well for business, a major attractor," Fried said. "You're one of the few places that can use that attractor. The Valley is quickly going to become the second-largest place in the state in that way. The characteristics are definitely changing."