Mat-Su legislators could control Legislature in January, but November elections might hold surprises

After the Republican rout of party moderates in the August primary elections conservative legislators mainly from the Matanuska-Susitna Borough could control both the House and Senate in the next Legislature.

Gov. Mike Dunleavy, also a conservative Republican and from Mat-Su, will also have more clout, thanks to the influence of the regional delegation.

Mat-Su legislators and those from Eagle River, who usually vote Mat-Su priorities, control about one fourth of both the House and Senate, which gives the region significant political leverage.

A Republican-controlled House and Senate could have the control they need to approve the kind of severe budget-cutting the governor attempted in his first year in office but was unable to do.

Dunleavy’s budget initiative was essentially blocked by the Legislature, which was led by Republican moderates in the Senate and a coalition of Democrats and Republican moderates in the House.

Another of the governor’s initiatives, a push for a “full” Permanent Fund Dividend, or PFD, based on a formula set in state statutes, could also get a friendlier reception. Part of that is Dunleavy’s plan for back payments of the PFDs for several years of under-funding of the dividends.

However, all of this could be derailed depending on the outcome of certain races in the November general election. It’s not impossible, and even quite possible in some scenarios, that Democrat-moderate Republican coalitions could form again, either in the House, the Senate or both.

The Senate was, and until January still is, controlled by moderate Republicans led by Senate President Cathy Giessel, R-Anch. The House is controlled by a coalition of Democrats and Republican moderates led by Rep. Bryce Edgmon, independent from Dillingham.

Those House and Senate organizations will soon be history, of course. Giessel and Sen. John Coghill, R-Fairbanks, another Senate veteran, were defeated in the Republican primary, which saw a low turnout in which only registered Republican and non-affiliated voters could cast ballots (there are no such limitations om voting in the Democratic primary).

If the right wing does dominate the Legislature there could be serious consequences for basic services like schools and the university, mainly because most of conservatives signed a pledge for a large Permanent Fund Dividend, or PFD.

Given that the state’s meagre finances are unlikely to support even a modest PFD, like the one paid this year, a push by the Legislature for a much larger dividend with the governor’s support could add $2 billion to the state deficit. This will require massive cuts to state programs next year or taking the money from the Permanent Fund, which would reduce it.

Democrats how hold seven seats in the 20-member Senate. While Giessel and Coghill are out as of January there are three Republican senators in the current leadership led by moderates, likely to return to Juneau in January: Republican senators Natasha von Imhof of Anchorage; Gary Stevens of Kodiak and Bert Stedman of Sitka. They are likely to be reelected.

A fourth Republican moderate senator will surely be there: Sen. Click Bishop, R-Fairbanks, who is in the middle of a four-year term. If the Democrats team up with these four, they will have 11 of the 20-member Senate.

That’s a theoretical concept because controlling the Senate with a one-vote margin is not really stable – a larger margin is needed to be effective in controlling the flow of legislation.

While it’s unknown whether the four moderate senators will join with Democrats, two of them, Stedman and Stevens, were part of a previous Senate Democrat-Republican coalition.

The flip side of this, however, is whether the four senators can accept a Senate organization led by Mat-Su conservative senators and with the governor in the shadows.

The conservative wing on nine senators will have to persuade the four to join them, and the may be tough because of sharply differing views on budget cuts and the larger PFDs,

Also, Senate Democats may gain in November. One highly contested senate November race is the seat in midtown Anchorage held by Josh Revak, a Republican, who was appointed to the Senate from the House following the death of Republican Sen. Chris Birch.

Revak won his Republican primary in August with 2,499 votes against two other Republicans. However, the Democrat in the race, Anita Thorne, withdrew, although she drew an impressive 2,733 of votes cast in the Democratic primary race.

This leaves Revak facing independent Andy Holleman, a member of the Anchorage school board, in the general election.

Revak’s Senate district has generally been Republican so the close split between total Republican votes cast and Democrats in the primary is surprising.

If Revak loses, this leaves the Senate with a probable eight conservative Republicans and eight possible Democrat winners, making it more likely for a coalition to form.

Even if there is no coalition the four moderate Republicans who are members of the present Senate leadership – Stedman, Stevens, Bishop, and von Imhof – are in a strong negotiating position.

The House could also end up with a narrow margin, too. As in the Senate, two prominent moderates, Reps. Chuck Kopp and Jennifer Johnston, were defeated. In the current Legislature the Republicans had a narrow majority in name but its position was unstable with such a narrow margin. That’s because one far-right Republican House member, Rep. David Eastman, R-Mat-Su, could virtually stop all bills including the budget though his practice of voting “no” on everything. (It takes 21 “yes” votes, a majority, for a bill to pass the House. Twenty “no” votes can halt legislation.)

Kopp, Johnston and the late Rep. Gary Knopp opted to organize with the Democrats so that Eastman’s influence would be reduced and the House could function. Knopp died in a tragic airplane accident this summer, and Republican Party activists targeted Kopp and Johnston for defeat, extracting their revenge for breaking ranks.

There are 17 Democrats in the House, assuming Elizabeth Ferguson, a Democrat, takes the Kotzebue-Utqiagvik district in Northwest Alaska being vacated by Rep. John Lincoln. That is virtually certain.

However, if Kodiak’s Rep. Louise Stutes, a Republican, decides to again to side again with the Democrats, it makes the total 18. Stutes is part of the current House coalition. Rep. Steve Thompson, R-Fairbanks, another moderate Republican who is part of the current coalition, might also join, making it 19 of the 40-member House.

A coalition in the House would still need three or more moderate Republicans to join to be effective, however. With Kopp, Johnston and Even in a traditional Republican-led House has to be a control margin of several votes. That’s because Rep. David Eastman, R-Wasilla, who will return to Juneau after being narrowly reelected, traditionally votes “no” on every bill out of principle.

If the House had only a 21-vote majority, Eastman voting no on a bill makes it 20-20, which defeats the bill. If there is one more Republican, or ideally two to three in case of absences due to illness or other reasons, the House Speaker can be assured of 21 votes to pass a critical bill like the budget.

However, the uncertainty is that there are also highly contested House races in November, so the Democrats could gain. For example, the race between incumbent Republican Rep. Mel Gillis against Democrat Calvin Schrage in midtown Anchorage, and in East Anchorage between Republican Rep. Lance Pruitt and Democrat Liz Snyder, could be close. Pruitt and Snyder ran against each other in 2018 and Pruitt won by only 200 votes. Both of these races are considered tossups.

In Fairbanks, Republican Rep. Bart LeBon faces a challenge from his Democrat opponent, Chris Quist. LeBon is respected by his colleagues in the House in both parties, but two candidates in the Democratic primary in LeBon’s district polled 1,396 together while LeBon, running unopposed in his race, polled 1,037.

LeBon is given the odds in winning, but there could always been a surprise. If Democrats pick up one or two more seats this makes a coalition-led House much more likely.

Mike Bradner, publisher of Alaska Legislative Digest, contributed to this article