Mat-Su to lead state job growth again in 2026, though numbers are modest

The Matanuska Susitna Borough has led Alaska’s job growth for several years will do so again in 2026, state labor economists say. While employment in most Alaska communities is level or slightly down, Mat-Su’s numbers are positive. However, they are not robust as in past years.

Statewide, North Slope oil work continues to boost construction and transportation jobs while most other industries, like tourism, are at least holding their own. But reduced federal employment and spending and a lean state budget are drags on the state’s economy. Also, outmigration of working-age adults with families continue, which results in declining school enrollment.

All this is according the January issue of Trends, the economic analysis magazine published by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

Mat-Su, however, presents a brighter picture. “Similar to its population trends, employment in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough has grown almost uninterrupted for decades,” economist Sam Tappen wrote in the Trends article.

Unlike the state as a whole, which shed more than 8 percent of its jobs in the 2020 pandemic recession, Mat-Su only lost about 0.7 percent. Job growth in the borough has outpaced the state every year since, playing an outsized role in Alaska’s recovery from the 2020 recession.

“We forecast Mat-Su will add about 400 jobs this year (1.3 percent), matching last year’s growth. This compares to a 0.8% projected employment growth for Anchorage, the state’s largest city, and 0.9% for the state as a whole,” Tappen wrote in the Trends article.

“Despite slight losses in a few sectors last year, we expect stability in 2026, with no sectors forecasted to lose jobs,” he wrote. For specific industries, and like other areas of the state, Mat-Su construction will likely slow this year but still add 100 jobs.

Projects starting in 2026 include the barge ramp project at the borough-owned Port MacKenzie, the Palmer library reconstruction, and numerous public transportation and utility projects aimed at addressing congestion in rapidly developing transportation corridors, Tappen wrote.

If Mat-Su Regional Medical Center’s certificate of need is approved, construction will begin on a $73 million free-standing inpatient behavioral health facility at the main campus.

Other sectors expected to grow this year include retail, financial activities, health care, and other services.

Mat-Su’s government employment will likely remain stable, with no significant changes at the federal, state, or local levels this year. The borough has not seen significant public-sector cuts in any of the last five years.

In 2024, 26 percent of Mat-Su’s employed residents worked in Anchorage, Tappen wrote, with about 33,000 vehicles traveling the Glenn Highway each day. Mat-Su, with its relatively affordable and abundant housing supply within commuting distance of Alaska’s largest city, was once known as the suburb of Anchorage.

In recent years, however, much of Mat-Su’s economy has diversified, fueled by rapid population growth. In each decennial census since 1970, Mat-Su’s population has grown at

more than triple the Anchorage growth rate, Tappen wrote in Trends.

Mat-Su residents once made regular trips to Anchorage for goods and services unavailable locally. As the borough has grown, so has the local economy and its offerings. Not long ago, only basics such as groceries and gas were

available in Mat-Su. Now, the borough rivals Anchorage for specialized products across industries.

While Anchorage’s industry count has slightly declined, MatSu has steadily matured, adding many of the goods and services residents used to buy in Anchorage, Tappen wrote.

Given Mat-Su’s increasingly distinct economy, its growing role in driving the statewide economy, and strong demand from residents and local organizations, we have added the Mat-Su Borough to our annual employment forecast.