Mat-Su’s population, economy rises while much of state stuck in low-growth mode

Most of Alaska seems stuck in a low-growth, relatively stagnant economic mode. Mat-Su is the one major region where the population is growing. Jobs and income are also rising faster in Mat-Su than other major communities of Alaska like Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau.

In population, Mat-Su and Anchorage combined are expected to grow about 1% from now to 2050, state demographers say.

Population projections and economic data are published in the latest edition of Trends, published by the Research and Analysis group within in state Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

One percent doesn’t sound like a lot, but when Anchorage is subtracted its population shows a decline, state demographer say. The growth part is in Mat-Su, and it’s the only major region of the state showing growth.

Interior Alaska, which is mostly Fairbanks, is expected to see a 7% decline. Southeast Alaska, which includes Juneau, Ketchikan and Sitka as its larger communities, is projected to decline by 17%.

The estimates measure expected deaths against projected births, and key parts of that equation include the aging of people, so that fertility rates are lower, and the continuing migration of working-page Alaskans, many with families, out of state.

These trends are most pronounced in Southeast Alaska. “Southeast is older (in peoples’ age) than most of the state and its birth rates are lower, leading to a natural decrease,” David Howell, the state’s demographer, wrote in the article in Trends.

“Deaths outnumbering births throughout the projected period, as well as net migration losses point to a steady population decline in Southeast,” Howell wrote.

In the Interior, military transfers boosted the population in 2020 and 2021 but the region has lost people since. “Based on the longer-term trends, these losses will continue as natural increase (births) won’t offset the future migration outflows,” of people leaving, Howell wrote.

One region of the state showing a healthy population growth, although it is small in numbers, is Southwest Alaska, a rural area with Bethel, Nome and Unalaska as its larger communities. Here the population is expected to be up by 11% by 2050 mainly due to its younger population and high fertility rates.

Those will combine to increase the natural population growth, more than offsetting migration. “Strong natural growth will make Southwest Alaska the state’s fastest-growing region,” Howell said.

The state’s latest population estimates show a decline from 737,000 people in 2023 to 723,000 in 2050, a 2% decrease. This is the first time the state will experience a long-term population loss. This will stem from continuing outmigration and, on a statewide basis, a slowing of the number of births over deaths.

These trends have important implications for the economy, with fewer adults of working age to take jobs, and fewer children in schools. That’s a long-term problem because fewer school children mean less state education funding but with school districts still paying operations and maintenance on buildings.

Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau are already closing schools as school populations fall.

In a shorter-term perspective of the economy, Mat-Su is performing better than Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau in terms of employment and income growth, according to data compiled by state economists and published in Trends.

Between 2022 and 2023 jobs in Mat-Su were up 3% and total wages paid were up 9%. Anchorage, in comparison, saw a 2% growth in jobs and 6% growth in wages paid. In the Fairbanks borough, employment grew 2% and wages by 10%. Juneau saw jobs increase 2% and wages paid by 8%. Statewide, employment was up 3% and wages paid up 8%, according to the data