Natural gas shortages predicted by 2014

This is the season when we remind readers about the relationship between electricity, heating and winter in Southcentral Alaska.

Although a lot of work has gone on in Cook Inlet in the last several years, including opening a new natural gas storage facility in April and the addition of new gas compressors, it is unlikely new gas will enter the market in time to head-off shortfalls forecasted to arrive in 2014.

This issue is complex, but if natural gas shortfalls persist here, it will matter for every person who depends on electricity and natural gas daily.

For decades, Southcentral Alaska reaped the benefits of abundant and cheap natural gas extracted from Cook Inlet. But for the past few years, utility companies and government officials have warned that on the coldest days when demand for natural gas is highest, Cook Inlet supplies barely meet demand.

Here at home, Matanuska Electric Association is in the midst of building its own generation plant. Its generators are designed to use natural gas, fuel oil or diesel; a design that reflects the uncertain future of gas supplies in Southcentral.

Despite the recent uptick in Cook Inlet oil and gas exploration, not enough new gas is entering the market to offset concerns about supplies this winter during peak demand — that’s the conclusion reached at the Anchorage Mayor’s Energy Task Force meeting Sept. 26.

At that meeting, James Posey, general manager of Anchorage’s Municipal Light and Power, noted that the typical timeline to bring new gas online is two to seven years. He said there are no one- or two-year miracles out there that will deliver Cook Inlet gas to market before 2014.

Utilities say they also are exploring the option of importing natural gas, but even that would take about two years to establish.

The utilities have contingency plans in place that go into action when demand spikes. As necessary, gas is diverted from the export facility in Nikiski and from electric utilities so that Enstar has enough gas to operate its system.

Enstar has priority, since natural gas is the fuel source that heats thousands of local homes and businesses, and because it is easier to restore electrical power to thousands of customers than it would be to restart natural gas service, should that system fail.

We all know it makes “cents” to use energy wisely year-round, but during times of peak demand, customers may be asked to take additional steps to conserve. Utilities and local governments have developed a stoplight-themed graphic to educate people on ways they can help reduce demand.

Green signals normal usage, but under yellow and red alerts, customers are asked to turn down thermostats and water heaters; turn off unnecessary lights and appliances; postpone laundry and dishes; and use the microwave for cooking.

While there seems no simple solution for how to get the gas we need here beyond 2014, we applaud utilities and local governments for working together to solve this complex issue.

We are confident that together these partners will deliver solutions to keep the gas flowing and the lights on.