Organization of state house remains a work in progress

No matter how the state Supreme Court will rule on disputed ballots in the Fairbanks legislative election, the organization of the state House of Representatives will remain a work in progress.

Even if Republican Barton LeBon’s one-vote win in Fairbanks House District 1 over Democrat Kathryn Dodge is upheld by the state high court, which is expected to rule quickly on the matter, Republicans will hold a 21-19 margin over a likely Democrat-led minority.

A one-vote margin of control in the 40-member state House isn’t enough to govern, particularly with Mat-Su’s maverick Republican David Eastman in the GOP group. Eastman is fiercely independent and typically goes his own way in voting, usually not aligned with his fellow Republicans.

If Dodge prevails, the House will be split 20-20, which means no legislative business can be done. It takes 21 votes to approve any action, even the election of a Speaker and assignments of members to committees and chairs of committees.

What is likely to happen is organization of the House by a coalition of some Republicans and Democrats, and last Saturday Rep. Gary Knopp, R-Kenai, said he has started work to organize a coalition and that he would not be part of a Republican-led Majority that totals only 21.

Knopp told KINY radio in Kenai that with a 21-member majority everyone would have to be in agreement, and that a coalition is needed for the House to function.

With his streak of independence Eastman cannot be counted on, which would leave the House stalemated at 20-20 votes on key issued like the budget.

Legislators are being tight-lipped on propects for a coalition.

“This is all a work in progress,” said Rep. Jennifer Johnston, an Anchorage Republican.

However, Democratic Rep. Andy Josephson, also of Anchorage, said he welcomed Knopp’s initiative.

“I’m an admirer of Gary Knopp and I hope this leads to something (a House organization) that would be good for the people of Alaska. Obviously the House is evenly-split, so it would be good to put together something of mutual benefit,” Josephson said.

While the House seat in Fairbanks is still unresolved, with a judicial outcome that could tip the balance of power, another vacancy, that of the Eagle River seat that would have been occupied by Nancy Dahlstrom, will most likely filled by another Republican who would be appointed by Gov. Mike Dunleavy.

Dahlstrom has been appointed Commissioner of Corrections by Dunleavy, and thus cannot take the legislative seat she was elected to in November.

Coalitions of Democrats and Republicans are quite common in the Alaska Legislature.

In the current Legislature, which was seated in January 2017 and will be in charge until mid-January, 2019, Democrats were joined by three dissident Republicans, Reps. Paul Seaton of Homer; Louise Stutes of Kodiak and Gabrielle LeDoux of Anchorage.

Seaton was defeated in his reelection bid in November but Stutes and LeDoux won another term and are considered likely to align with Democrats again, although that is not certain until the Legislature convenes Jan. 15.

Among Democrats who might “cross over” to organize with Republicans, many consider Nome’s Rep. Neal Foster and Kotzebue’s Rep. John Lincoln possibilities. Rural legislators often join with whoever runs the Majority because, as the sole representative in a large district, they must work with whoever is in power to protect programs vital to constituents regardless of philosophy.

Foster has joined Republican-led majorities it the past and while Lincoln is still new to the House, being appointed to fill a vacancy and then elected for his own term in November, he will be under pressure by constituents to seek committee assignments that have influence, which means he must align with those in power.

Among Republican house members there are a number of moderate Republicans from urban areas, particularly Anchorage, who might join with moderate Democrats in an organization, essentially outflanking conservatives like Eastman among Republicans and the liberal wing among House Democrats.

What would emerge would be a centrist-organization that would be moderately pro-development on economic issues but also somewhat protective of social programs and education.

Meanwhile, the state Senate’s organization is not without its tension, although the 20-member upper chamber of the Legislature is traditionally more collegial. It is also typically led by experienced lawmakers, no matter what party dominates, and most internal Senate negotiations are behind-the-scenes.

Republicans, holding 13 seats, are clearly in charge in the Senate with Democrats a clear minority, holding only 7 seats. Anchorage Republican Sen. Cathy Giessel is Senate president with the influential Finance committee to be run by two cochairs, Republican Bert Stedman of Sitka and Natasha Von Imhof of Anchorage.

Giessel is a conservative by philosophy but has demonstrated an ability to work across the-aisle with Democrats on key, even controversial issues, particularly in health care.

But rural Democrats have typically joined with Republican-led majorities in the Senate, and Bethel’s Democratic Sen. Lyman Hoffman, a long-serving legislator, has traditionally sat on the Senate Finance Committee as a majority member.

At first, following the November election, there was a concerted effort by conservative senators including MatSu’s Mike Shower and Eagle River’s Lora Rienbold, to ensure no Democrats were included in the Senate Republican-led majority.

They lost that battle, so that Hoffman was once again allowed in and even named once more to the Finance Committee. The Finance committee was also enlarged from seven to nine members so that it now would include almost half the 20-member senate.

There are factions within the Senate Republican Majority with the divisions mainly between conservative and moderate Republican senator and those from larger communities, like Anchorage and MatSu, and smaller communities, particularly coastal districts.

Stedman for example, represents a Southeast Alaska coastal district and is a veteran legislator who, while conservative, sometimes charts a course that is independent of Republicans from larger communities, like Anchorage, particularly on natural resource issues.

Sen. Gary Stevens, of Kodiak, also represents a coastal constituency and has long been involved in education. In the past he has often disagreed with urban Republican senators over budget cuts to schools and in 2019 he might spar with Gov. Mike Dunleavy if the governor champions a proposal to amend the state constitution to allow state funds to go to religious schools, an idea Dunleavy put forward when he was in the state senate.