Peltola or Palin for Congress? We’ll know by Thursday

For Congress, Peltola or Palin? We’ll know by Thursday.

The final ballots from the Aug. 16 state primary election are being counted on Wednesday, Aug. 31, the first reallocation of votes in the new “ranked choice” election system will take place.

It’s in the special election to fill out deceased Congressman Don Young’s term in the U.S. House, which ends in January. Democrat Peltola gained a big lead in first-round voting in the Aug. 16 special election over two challengers, former Gov. Sarah Palin and Nick Begich.

Peltola holds 70,048 votes to Palin’s 57,486 and Begich’s 49,833 in the final tally of first-round votes. But there’s a second round, and that will be counted Aug. 31.

It involves the reallocation, under ranked-choice voting, of second choices. Palin and Begich are conservatives while Peltola is considered a political moderate. It is expected that many Begich voters will pick Palin as a second choice, so that Palin will gain votes. How much this may reduce Peltola’s lead won’t be known until Thursday.

Peltola – or Palin – must get 50 percent of the votes cast to win. If that doesn’t happen another round of vote reallocation happens, of third choices of the three on the ballot, until one candidate reaches 51 percent.

The balloting to fill out Young’s term was the only ranked-choice selection on the August ballot.

Other races, including the closely-watched U.S. Senate race and the governor’s and legislative races, as well as the election for the full two-year U.S. House term, were all first-choice selections Aug 16 with the top four in all races proceeding to the November general election, which will be ranked-choice.

In the U.S. Senate race, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski is leading challenger Kelly Tshibaka by a 85,334 to 73,161 in the Aug. 16 first-round balloting, but there are 17 others on ballot, most receiving relatively few votes. One other name on the ballot is Patricia Chesbro, who received 12,945 votes in the first round. Buzz Kelley, another Republican, received 4,030 votes.

Murkowski, Tshibaka, Chesbro and Kelley were the top four vote-getters, so they will be on the November general election ballot.

The November election will be ranked choice, with a reallocation of second and possibly third-choices. Murkowski is expected to prevail, but this won’t be known until November.

Gov. Mike Dunleavy held a healthy lead in the Aug. 16 first-round balloting over challengers Bill Walker, a former governor, Les Gara, a former legislator, and Charlie Pierce, a former Kenai Borough mayor. There are six others on the ballot in the governor’s race, but Dunleavy, Walker, Gara and Pierce will appear on the November ballot.

Again, votes will be reshuffled with second and possibly third choices. There are a lot of scenarios as to who will get the alternative votes.

Meanwhile, the results of many of the legislative races can be seen now. With the exception of one Fairbanks House race there were four or fewer candidates in state House and Senate races, so all on the August ballot appear again in November.

Most voters don’t change their minds between primary elections in August and general elections in November, so many of the likely final winners are apparent particularly where the front-runner, typically an incumbent, leads by a large margin. Even with ranked choice, with only two or three others on the ballots there wouldn’t be enough votes reallocated to erase the front runner’s lead.

In the Mat-Su legislative races candidates who led in the initial first-round counts after Aug. 16 have held their leads as absentee and questioned ballot are counted.

In most cases incumbent legislators did well but a surprise was in Mat-Su’s Senate District O, where Doug Massie received 5,002 first-round votes to incumbent Sen. Mike Shower’s 4,286.

Both appear on the November ballot. Both are Republicans.

In Senate District M, Republican Sen. Shelley Hughes 7,703 to Democrat Jim Cooper’s 2,477. Hughes seems likely to prevail in November.

In Senate District N, incumbent Sen. David Wilson, Republican, polled 3,583 to Republican Scott Clayton’s 2,025 and Democrat Stephen Wright’s 2,122. The rematch in November will be ranked choice, with a reshuffling of votes, so Wilson’s reelection can’t be guaranteed.

In the House District 25 race, Rep. DeLena Johnson received 3,587 votes to challenger Lawrence Wood’s 1,478. Both are Republican.

In House District 26, Rep. Cathy Tilton received 3,556 to Daniel Stokes, Libertarian’s 858. In House District 27 Rep. David Eastman received 1,931 to Stu Graham’s 974 and Brendan Carpenter’s 804. All three are Republican.

In House District 28 Steve Menard received 1,399 votes, maintaining a narrow lead over borough assemblyman’s Jesse Sumner’s 1,363. Two others on the ballot were Jessica Wright, polling 737, and Rachel Allen with 628 votes. All are Republican.

In House District 29 incumbent Rep. George Rauscher received 3,612 votes to 1,274 for challenger Elijah Haase. Rausher is Republican while Haase is non-partisan.

In House District 30, Houston and Big Lake, incumbent Rep. Kevin McCabe polled 2,462 to Republican Doyle Holmes’ 1,449 and Democrat L. Joy Mindiola’s 1,283.

In the Eagle River/Chugiak’s legislative races the early results from the Aug. 16 election have held up.

In Senate District L, Republican Rep. Kelly Merrick, now a member of the state House, polled 5,323 to another House member Rep. Ken McCarty, who received 2,872. Of two other candidates, Joe Wright received 1,132 votes while Clayton Trotter polled 691. All four are Republican.

In House District 23 Jamie Allard received 2,863 votes to Roger Branson’s 2,178. Both are Republican. In House District 24, Dan Saddler received 2,919 votes to Sharon Jackson’s 1,365.

Daryl Nelson polled 1,211.