Polls tell the tale down the stretch

The fourth in a series of statewide surveys commissioned by the Anchorage Press, Frontiersman, KTUU Channel 2 and KENI 650 AM is in the books, fielded Oct. 3-6 with the usual 500 likely voters statewide.

This is the first survey we’ve done since the Stevens trial started in Washington, D.C. There’s been a compelling mix of damaging evidence, prosecution blunders and almost daily pleadings by the defense for a mistrial.

By all accounts, it came close to one, but the judge said the show goes on. And I wondered what Alaskans thought …

Q: Have you been following along with events at Ted Stevens’ trial in Washington, D.C.?

Eighty-six percent of respondents said they had, and those folks were asked …

Q: Do you think the trial is going well for Stevens or not well?

The response was split, with 36 percent saying it was going well for Stevens, 35 percent saying not well, and 30 percent saying they weren’t sure, or that it was evenly balanced.

So to this point, the damage is limited for Stevens, and the results on the Senate race bear this up. Here are the survey results since mid-July, with the positive-negative ratings for Begich and Stevens, along with the race numbers, Begich first:

7/18-22 8/9-12 8/30-9/2 9/20-22 10/3-6

Begich 66-23 66-23 57-28 60-28 60-29

Stevens 55-38 46-46 50-40 48-44 51-41

Senate 51-43 (+8) 56-39 (+17) 49-46 (+3) 48-46 (+2) 49-45 (+4)

Begich’s positive-negative is static, showing just an uptick of one point on the negative in the last two weeks. Stevens, on the other hand, shows a more notable improvement, with his positive going up three points back up over the 50 percent barrier and his negative dropping three. How does he do it? He’s being hammered with TV and radio ads funded by the NRSC (didn’t I tell you two weeks ago those negatives wouldn’t work?) and of course, his trial’s been ongoing. He’s a phenomenon. Teflon Ted. Alaskans really are reserving judgment on him until a verdict comes down.

Despite Ted’s improving approval ratings, the race numbers have drifted a little back toward Begich, now by four points. The last three polls show the race hovering in place, within the margin of error, first a three-point Begich lead, then two, now four.

Now get this for a fascinating look inside the numbers: I bet you all think there’s this uprising of Alaska youth, waiting to burst onto the election scene this year and vote straight D? Bestirred by Obama from their traditional voting apathy, they’re all just itching to make the difference this year, right? Errrrmmm, no. Not here in Alaska, anyway.

The young vote is a phenomenon I’ve seen before in other polls here in Alaska, one that contradicts the conventional wisdom that people are born liberal, moderate in middle age, only becoming cranky old conservatives later in life. Stevens is leading comfortably among the under-35s.

The most intriguing and plausible theory for this anomaly is that it’s a second-generation pipeline bubble, the kids of all the folks who moved here in the ‘70s and made Alaska the Republican state it is today.

And look at the 65 and overs; Begich up 17 points. This is why Stevens has been touting his Medicare legislation so hard in one of his TV ads. It’s a ghastly ad production-wise, but the message is clear — Ted saved the day by making it so Alaska seniors could get a doctor to treat them on Medicare. Stevens probably saw numbers just like these and knew it was a problem he had to fix.

OK, moving on to the House race:

7/18-22 8/9-12 8/30-9/2 9/20-22 10/3-6

Berkowitz 50-18 45-23 48-23 49-26 53-24

Young 41-52 41-53 31-58 39-52 40-51

Congress 52-37 (+15) 51-41 (+10) 54-37 (+17) 49-44 (+5) 51-42 (+9)

At last, the Berk moves. He started with an ad on TV last Monday that was much more along the lines of what he needed, showing strength and his willingness to stand up and do the right thing. All of sudden, with just a week of that spot airing, his positive is up to a high of 53 percent and his negative has ticked back down. The race is a 9-point Berkowitz lead.

Meanwhile, Don is nowhere to be seen. No TV, no radio, no campaign really. Just in the last few days, he’s gotten a TV buy in that starts mid-next week, on or around the 15th. If that’s when he comes up, he’ll be giving Ethan a more than two-week headstart with unopposed media, a death sentence this close to the election.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m never going to rule Don out. I was there working on his campaign back in 1992 when he pulled his race against John Devens out of the fire with just a few days to go. But money’s a big problem this year. Early in 2007, he had nearly $2 million cash on hand in his campaign account. As of the last FEC report about six weeks ago, he only had $300,000 left. Lawyers made off with most of it.

It looks pretty bleak for the Don. He really is going to need a miracle.

Finally, there’s this …

Q: Did you watch or listen to the recent vice presidential debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden?

Eighty-eight percent of people said yes.

Q: Who do you think won the debate, Sarah Palin or Joe Biden?

Thirty-eight percent said Biden, 36 percent said Sarah, 27 percent said they weren’t sure, or it was too close to call. Sarah didn’t do too bad in that debate, certainly clearing her expectations hurdle very easily. But the fact that Alaska voters gave the nod to Biden, albeit by a small margin, says something.

Nationally, the presidential race is, as I predicted two weeks ago, going south for the McCain-Palin team in a hurry. Is it too soon to start planning the homecoming celebrations?

Come on … let’s have a big party.

Andrew Halcro will emcee, I’m sure.

Begich Stevens

18-34 36% 52%

35-49 51% 44%

50-64 47% 46%

65+ 55% 38%

Ivan Moore is an independent pollster from Anchorage.