Pollster: GOP rules local races

WASILLA — Republican candidates are poised to make a clean sweep of the Mat-Su Valley’s seats in the state Legislature come November, a Southcentral political pollster predicts.

In the national-level races, incumbent U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens faces a challenge from Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, a Democrat, and incumbent Congressman Don Young faces former state legislator Ethan Berkowitz. On those races, Ivan Moore of Moore Research is less certain.

“All I can really talk to you about is our numbers from last week,” said the Anchorage-based pollster.

“Begich up by four and Berkowitz up by nine,” he said, summing up the results.

Poll results regarding Gov. Sarah Palin’s approval ratings due out Monday will be delayed until at least today, Moore said. Also in the hopper for early this week are numbers gathered this weekend regarding the Stevens/Begich and Young/Berkowitz races.

But as far as the Valley’s state House and Senate campaigns, Moore said he couldn’t find a tight race in the lot. For those who haven’t looked at a ballot recently, those races:

• For Senate Seat G: Republican Linda Menard is facing Democrat Erick Cordero. The winner will take over for retiring Republican Lyda Green.

• For House District 13 representing Palmer and Hatcher Pass: Incumbent Republican Carl Gatto is facing Democrat David Cheezem.

• For House District 14 representing Wasilla: Incumbent Republican Wes Keller is facing Democrat Rose Smith

• For House District 15 representing Houston, Talkeetna and points in between: Incumbent Republican Mark Neuman is facing Democrat Lew Dischner.

• For House District 16 representing Butte and Chugiak: Incumbent Republican Bill Stoltze is facing Democrat Beverly Serrano.

Moore said that in each race, Republicans can expect a blowout victory. He bases the prediction on polling, but also on “countless conversations” with Alaska political insiders about which state seats are in play.

“In the course of all those conversations throughout this year there has been zero mention of the Keller race, zero mention of the Neuman race, zero mention of the Stoltze race. No mentions at all for those three,” he said. “That pretty much tells me that no one is looking at them as being reasonably close in any respect.”

As to the Senate; “Menard is running against Erick Cordero and she’s obviously going to blow him out of the water. No doubt about that.”

He said the race had a lot more interest among politicos before Green dropped out in June.

As to the Gatto/Cheezem match-up, Moore summed up his assessment of Cheezem as a “great guy, very well qualified, rather too Democrat.”

Moore said there’s certainly some attention being paid, but he thinks it’s less for how this race will turn out and more for what people see coming down the pipeline.

“The Gatto race did get some attention just because I think Cheezum is considered a good candidate for the future kind of thing,” he said.

Contact Andrew Wellner at andrew.wellner@frontiersman.com or 352-2270.